Notice we're smack middle back in the range of late, with a slight tone of further downside. That is probably the most difficult moment to call further shorts right now. It's much easier close to the ATH on a day like today, but there is still some 20+ pips way to the lower bounds of the latest range.
Well, I managed to turn my P&L into a pinata today. I exited short early and went long. Eventually I went long from low 50s. I lost my ability to trail my positions properly again!
Unbelievable! Now it's full-steam ahead running up again. I was knocking my head on the wall for exiting my short and going long earlier. The deadliest mistake in this business is to fall in love with your position or a certain direction! Edit: Little bit earlier, I was tempted to take profits on long and go short. Today, I felt like a genius then an idiot, then genius again, then idiot, then genius again. It's as if what I'm seeing is not reality!
I think that defining a target greatly helps in getting profits that will stay profits - and not turn into losses. Today was looking at a selloff on the back of month-end, some securing profits and London fixing sales. Then there're also the USDJPY expiries. Many times one can get some help from plotting events like that - like a map when travelling in the wilderness - and try and see the hills and slopes for what they really are. Not that I'm trying to say some curve is predictable around the corner, but at least to try and know what one can expect from the movement. I just took a little hiking trail on today's map - it's hard to cover all the territory in one day alone - almost exhausting, and I remember those tough Eco-challenge episodes.
Hey Gringinho, are you talking with you scalper or position trader hat on Lately, I'm working in two time-frames (my adaptive MAs). I try to decipher which one to follow as the trade progresses. I might enter with one of them and then trail with the other. As the market twists and turns, I adjust my time-frames. This sometimes seems to be causing problems.
I know, working with several viewpoints on trades is tough to do. I do have targets on both my scalps and my positions I have tried. When I can comfortably enter positions will be a big relief for me, but I don't think that december might be the best period for that kind of trading. That's make me glad I can scalp too ... When we look at any normal trading day - almost what we can call today's trading - there are time-periods and time-events along with statements and numbers which can spur movement, and then cap movement as it plays out in full or just wanes on trader exhaustion etc. Therefore I think there has to be some combination for the positions - and scalps close to those events - which defines a credible target. The performance earlier in the day should not define that target - but we both know that drive - and that it ends in over-trading. Lately, I have been beleaguered by my position-trading trials so that I will be looking for bigger moves than the healthy scalps I normally enjoy - for my demo account mostly. It does not perform as well as a pure scalping technique or pure positional trade during the last few weeks I think. So for my EuroFX trading, I prefer the careful scalping right now, but I'm checking out some other trades with the demo account. I trade less now, but the market is noticably thinner too. I miss the cold weather right now, and don't even enjoy taking a few minutes swim in the pool when it's 33 Celsius ... I better try and catch a cold from some of the european tourists here.
I ended up meeting a hedge fund manager this weekend by pure coincidence at my club! I'll meet with him and his staff later this week. I'm not going in for an "official" interview but he wanted to see my resume and meet with his team. Something interesting might come out of this.
Exactly. Everything looks good on paper. But mix in real-time data flowing and couple of whipsaws and before you know, I'm clicking the mouse like a machine gun.
Well, I'm done for the day. Managed to make a good deal of pips, mostly playing the aussie. I got lucky, since today showed no indication of anything relating to sense. The only thing that allowed me to do decently on the Euro was the realization that the swing would pass me by (today several times) if I made a bad call. I love range trading. Good night all, I'll probably get my ass kicked tomorrow, but tonight I sleep well. For a change.