krupkinm, Are you still in the Aussie trade? Are you going to hold it overnight? I might take this short to the next session. Things didn't go as wished (no downward trend later in the session) but 1.21 in EurUsd seems to be a decent cap to the upside for now. Chinook
my stop in aussie is 85...so about 15 points away...I don't love it, its closing strong, and I was into the trade a bit early without having the confirmation of a print below 45...but i'll keep it on since my stop is so close...we've still got a shot...the way i see it, we are in a very tight range, and ranges usually resolve themselves in the direction of the previous trend...so we've got a shot, I'm sticking with it, if stopped, we've got tomorrow.
I'm still debating about it. I don't think we'll see a sustaining upwards move within the next 7-8 hours. I want to put a stop little bit over 1.21 but that might get whipped. I don't want to risk more than 20 pips. Chinook
I just covered my aussie on a dip at 62...was short at 57...I'll resell on a true break of 45...I think if you leave a stop at 1.21 that the noise may take you out...a stop above 20-30 is where it should be...but good luck...i'm done for the day.
yes, he was the number one ranked squash player in the world for several years. what is really unique about the way he plays is that he switches the raquet from hand to hand so he rarely uses a backhand. will we be seeing you on sept. 9 ?? best, surf
The two edges you describe for long-term trading apply equally for short-term trading. You can be selective in when you trade intraday. And you can trade only in the direction of strong intraday trends, to put the odds in your favour. I don't see why trading long-term with the long-term trend should provide any more edge than trading short-term along with the short-term trend. Also, there are speculator edges other than trend-following.
The short-term trend is much more random and much less reliable as to the true demand/supply equation of the market. In short, it is subject to short-term fluctuations which are closer to random than movements associated with the longer-term trend. Can you please name a few 'edges' that you believe exist for a screen-based trader. While I do agree that their are more edges than just trading with the trend, I doubt that we are referring to the same edges. I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours :0)
Why doesn't he think TA can't be tested? As long as the entry and exit conditions can be precisely defined, and you have accurate historical price data (or patience and live money trading - my personal preference), then I don't see any problem testing it.
It was a flat day for me. In a sense it was good since the intraday eurusd chart looked very ugly. I'm still short (1.2081) with a stop little bit over 1.21. Chinook
I'm not convinced the short-term is more random. Remember you do not need it to be non-random every week, let alone every day. All you need is a moderate number of nonrandom days per year. If you have only 5 trend days a year, that compares favourably to 1 long-term trend every 2-3 years (assuming equal risk/reward and % win rate on each trend). As for non-trend speculator edges - devaluations (e.g. Asian currencies 1998, Argentina 2001), yield plays (e.g. Brazilian Real late 02-2003), fading markets which have run too far on excessive speculation and thus built up massive resting stop loss orders (e.g. Yen 1998), trading price/sentiment divergences (e.g. short Euro on introduction, short Euro in late 2000 after the central bank intervention; shorting the Euro@1.110-11 just before the Iraq war, going long BRL in 2002/03), trading related markets when major news hits a primary currency (e.g. buying AUD in Autumn 1998 when the BoJ intervened to purchase Yen, as a sympathy play - you had almost a minute to buy as much AUD as you wanted); trading pure price action (e.g. the reversal day and double top in the Euro earlier this year); buying extremely PPP undervalued currencies (especially once sentiment becomes excessively bearish and you get a technical blowoff & reversal signal). Obviously it is rather tricky to label years of experience of price action, even though it is IMO a perfectly legitimate edge. I define an edge as anything which makes a consistent long-run profit.