I agree - you'll "know a signal" when you see it emerging and already shaping the next effect. The best one can do is get on it quickly - because FX moves fast when it is triggered. Trying top-picking or bottom-picking waiting in line is mostly guessing luck. Hitting bid or ask is a lot less of a give-away. (uh, 1500+ posts already - I guess almost 1000 of them in this thread alone) edit: I think I mentioned CME Globex fx closing early today ... it closes 12:00 EST and resumes 17:00 EST. I erroneously refferred to my local 12:00 time earlier ... see http://www.cme.com/about/press/cn/04-176ThanksgivingSchedule10558.html
you been up all night ? I just got up myself ... went to bed 3 am EST not trading , just watching you still trading in brazil ? yes that flipper in Euro sure amazes me even if it is being arbed against spot looks like the JPY has hit some support ? 102.25-102.50 NEW HIGHS EURO ! getting close to 1.3250
how can the european equity markets be rallying in the face of their euro getting stronger , along with the us equity markets rallying with the USD getting weaker ? or do trends remain in force until the end of the year for equities as long as the price of crude oil remains under $50 ?
``We are increasingly dependent upon an inflow of foreign capital,'' said Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, in an interview with PBS television late yesterday. ``The problem is how long can this go on,'' he said. ``When something happens it tends to go further than you imagined and that's the history of financial crises.''
Wish FXCM was open so I can trade this. I'm probally going to wait for a drop-back then get in maybe it'll hit 1.3300 in the London open
For the Europeans, the higher Euro takes most of the pain out of rising oil prices. Also the Euro rise really only has a negative effect on their exporters, which is not the dominant sector of the economy like it is in Japan. Happy Thanksgiving everybody. TRADERguy
Yes, but in countries like Germany - where the export market is like 75%, and latest GDP numbers were (I think) somewhere around 1.5%, they have to realize that this higher EUR is going to smack them where it hurts. Who'da thunk a "light trading day" would push Euro over 130 pips.
Curious, this was from forexnews.com. What are your thoughts? "It is becoming increasingly accepted that the European Central Bank will have to act in the event that the euro nears the $1.35 level, which is the equivalent to the 1.45 low in the USD/Deutsche mark attained in summer 1995. In addition to US officialsâ laisser-faire attitude towards the dollar decline, European monetary officials have also contributed to the dollarâs decline by reiterating that the pace of euro appreciation was more material than absolute levels. EU Monetary Commissioner Al Munia said the Eurozone could remain competitive with the euro at current levels as long as there were no sharp movements. But with Eurozone growth projections being downgraded to as low as 1.7% in 2005 from 2.0% in 2004, an accumulated strengthening in the currency will run counter to the strengthening of the overall economy. Given the technical importance of the 1.35 level as well as the growth implications of such a level, we expect a more aggressive type of interventionism from the ECB, which will eventually take the form of covert euro selling via German and French commercial banks. Thursday's upcoming release of IFO business sentiment survey from Germany could show a decline to as low as 94.5 in November from Octoberâs 95.3. This would be the lowest level since September 2003. We already saw from Germanyâs ZEW research instituteâs economic sentiment index tumbling by 17.4 points to 13.9 in November. The index is now well below its historical average of 34.6 points. The ZEW Institute said âthe experts expect economic growth to slow down in the period up to May of next year [due to] an expected worldwide economic slowdown and the very distinct appreciation of the Euro which has taken place recently and which could prove a burden for German external tradeâ. The ZEWâs economic expectations index for the Eurozone also declined, shedding 15.5 points to a reading of 22.1. The situation in France, the Eurozone second largest economy, isnât faring well either especially as GDP growth slowed to a sluggish 0.1% rate in Q3 from 0.7% in Q2. With French Finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy leaving his post after 8 months to head the ruling Popular Movement Party, one expect the economy to become an increasingly political issue, especially as Sarkozy makes his bid for president in 2007. Despite the European Central Bankâs independence from government pressure, we believe the central bank will begin echoing more resounding signs of concern that should exert pressure on the currency around the 1.35 level. Thinning trading conditions ahead of the Winter Holidays could accelerate currency volatility, with the most likely direction to be dollar negative. But in the short-term, we especially expect the ECB to strengthen its rhetoric in the event that Fridayâs November labor report disappoints below 100K."