curious which economic numbers are most and least important in FX trading for next week? (I apologize in advance for any errors here as I copied and pasted this data from DJ newswires ... so if I make mistake or if DJ made mistake on the time or day ) Monday, November 22, 2004 04am EST EU Sep Euro zone foreign trade ? Tuesday, November 23, 2004 02am EST GER 3Q Final GDP ? 04am EST EU Sep Euro zone Indus New Orders? 1850pm EST JPN Sep Tertiary Activity Index and All Industry Activity Index ? Wednesday, November 24, 2004 1850pm EST JPN Oct Trade Balance ? Thursday , November 25, 2004 0500am EST GER Nov Ifo Business Climate? 1830pm EST JPN Nov Tokyo CPI + Oct Nationwide CPI ?
Lately the numbers mean very little and not much comes out next week. For next week: G20 statement on Sunday the 21st at 12pm GMT (UTC) For the EU #'s the IFO is the most important, German GDP would be worth keeping an eye on but it's a Final reading so it will be ignored unless it's a big change. Note that German #'s leak like a sieve; when I worked for an institution we always had the numbers 1 hour to 3 minutes prior to the release. For the US #'s Durable goods on Wednesday 8:30 ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report Wed 10:30 ET. I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on the Japanese #'s. Cheers, TRADERguy
My opinion is that all EU and US numbers will start to take on greater importance - with a swing towards 'normality' again. The last months ignoring of macroeconomic numbers has been unusual, and was excacerbated by the increasing focus by the markets on structural deficiancies and problems in US economy - i.e extreme deficits (budgets, imports), foreign investor dependence, high energy price impacts on GDP and offsetting profits for energy producers etc. Coupled with the view of the Euro as the more stabile currency gaining popularity whilst the USD needs to correct to start tackling the structural problems in the US economy. There are still longer term problems which seemingly only will worsen under the current policies; increasing retirement payout burden, top-of-the-curve corporate economic growth which seemingly is slowing - capex never really took off, consumer debt levels, housing prices, national defense burden, increased (and permanent) tax cuts and more. Still, the venting of the JPY as a counterbalance to the mainly one-sided EURUSD strength rally, manages to start mixing in some expectations of more normal conditions in the markets - as well as easing pressure off the EU - which also is very welcome there. Then there are all the political bickering and consequences of bad policies which makes for uncertain backdrop settings. I'm an earlybird today ... sleep-pattern skewed a little by yesterday's trading extension.
Well, good morning (though it's 14:00 here)... So let me ask you, Gring... I'm long on yen at 103.44 right now. In your opinion, should I batten down the hatches and expect to take a loss or am I in a good position for the next week? -Ivan
I don't think it's an especially good entry for being long, but it can still try and get up there. As far as I know it will take somewhat of an effort to break up through the 103.50 resistance now. That's only logical since there were very large barriers there, and a lot of money was put on the line to break through it. You will not see an easy sure thing of a profit there in my opinion. I think we will see further USD weakness, as do most, so I would like to ask you how you got in below that big barrier breach ? Were you looking for a quick bounce above 103.50 with a small profits - or possible big profits if it got over 104 again ? Remember the 104.50 was also capped for several sessions by big money. Sure, we can see some USD strengthening retracements, but there is no fighting the overall trend. Most talk about 100 USDJPY testing and 1.31 EURUSD testing as fairly given - although I think the current venting gives the EURUSD a chance to go below 1.2900 and from there maybe a sentiment-triggered slide towards the 1.26s or even 1.24s. I don't see 103.44 as a sure thing, but very risky. Still you can probably get out on volatility, perhaps even with profits - but averaging down your entry would be extremely risky too. Consider this: detach mentally from your previous trade, and if you see another good setup - follow that one. If that involves a further downside - then dump the previous trade for a better setup downwards, or if upwards - mingle the two for less losses on the first (i.e "adding to loser").
You guys should of been in the room when I showed my sister and dad my printed week P/L report: "They're just setting you up to take all your money." "Is that real money?" "They are just making the numbers in your favor to make you give them more money." LoL I geuss you gotta expect that coming from a middle-class 1st generation in US Puerto Rican familly. Any thing out of that meeting yet?
Gring, Was just meant as a quick proft take - no desire to be there long term. I think there are going to be some bounces, where I'll get out and re-establish a short. That was the thinking. Regards.
Some info from Thomson on the G20 meeting [04:10 Special Report On G20 Meeting] [Final Communique Makes No Specific Mention Of USD - DJ] After German Finance Minister Eichel specifically mentioned in his opening remarks that abrupt moves in currency markets resulting from global imbalances were undesirable, many analysts and fellow G20 members thought that the gist of that statement would be included in the final communique. The fact that it wasn"t might be significant and show that despite Europe"s and Japan"s concern over the falling USD the U.S. view that the G20 shouldn"t overly interfere in the market"s setting of currency rates has once again prevailed. The final communique made mention of the fact that emerging Asia should continue to make steps towards greater exchange rate flexibility, but it was hardly a highly pressured urging for China to free up the Yuan. [China Not Yet Ready To Liberalize Yuan] While U.S. President Bush and Chinese President Hu were exchanging pleasantries in Chili and assuring each other that they would address their mutual difficulties with each other"s policies (i.e. U.S. deficits and Yuan peg), halfway around the world in Berlin the Governor of the Peoples Bank of China brushed off any suggestion that China was going to move quickly on liberalizing their currency regime. Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was asked by reporters if China was considering widening the Yuan band. In very direct language Zhou responded by saying that it was "still not the stage to talk about specific technical arrangements." Zhou added that China was still in the process of making institutional reforms in preparation for exchange rate liberalization. [G20 Source Plays Down Faint Hopes Of Joint Action On FX - DJ] According to a DJ report a source at G20 who did not want to be named said that "the G20 does not believe that forex interventions are an appropriate instrument." The source said that the central bankers and finance ministers agreed on that position during the first session on Saturday. There was some short USD covering ahead of the G20 meeting just in case there was some discussion or hint of possible joint action to halt the slide of the USD if it started to fall too quickly. The comments from the G20 source should put that idea to rest and result in USD selling come Monday morning. [G20 Divided Over USD Slide - Reuters] German Finance Minister Hans Eichel told his counterparts at the G20 meeting in Berlin that the G20 does not want global imbalances to result in any abrupt moves in exchange rates. German Chancellor Schroeder blamed the falling dollar on the huge U.S. budget and current account deficits. This view was shared by China"s central bank governor Zhou who also blamed the USD decline on the twin deficits. Japanese delegates at the G20 meeting also expressed great concern over the fall in the USD and the pace of the decline. Meanwhile U.S. officials remained silent on the issue. Ministers from Brazil and India were sanguine about the fall in the USD so far saying there was no reason to worry and there was no appetite from the G20 to intervene to halt the fall. It certainly seems that the G20 is very far away from striking any kind of accord on the issue of exchange rates even though the recent fall of the buck has put FX back on the front burners for central bankers and finance ministers. An official from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority said that Eichel"s message about the undesirability of abrupt moves in currency and/or oil prices might be included in the final Communique. Also, reports of Watanabe saying now is the time for Japan to start thinking on intervention - probably implying that the fast decline of USDJPY is closing in on stress-levels when it comes to how fast they'll accept the USDJPY to fall. Of course markets need to find this trigger first. Otherwise, it seems with all the informatin laid out that the USDJPY will continue to go down some, but shouldn't get "out of hand" too fast - with "verbal intervention" perhaps making some ranges, consolidation. But with everyone realizing that a lower USDJPY that waterfall might be difficult to stop without some action to back it up. Markets might take their chances and look for those triggers, like I mentioned. China's Yuan was off the discussions for a little, with no lifting of peg anytime soon, easing political pressure a little - China won't bend over for anyone. Thomson notes there might be some disappointment by the Japanese that the USD and strong, rapid moves being undesirable was not mentioned in the final G20 statement.