True, I am a scalper at heart - and see I need to master the system/strategy trading - like you do - to be very successful. I enjoyed reading your journal and like to think I learned something. I am trying to get a system that suits me and my "mind" - but am still at the starting stages. I do think what I posted a few days ago about "pausing" instead of halving positions could be part of this system that suits me - and can be very successful in getting more effect out of trending moves.
One problem with me is that I get extremely bored reading these economic reports and analysis. Also, I believe that conditions and correlations keep on changing. And you never when the big pockets will come in and move the markets. For me, price and volume tell enough story. I think I have just enough mental capacity to process two variables Anyway right now, analysis is my last worry, I still have internal demons to sort through...
Getting your thought process right will help you eliminate the demons which haunts you, remember that. If you know what's right - then you at least have a fighting chance. I'm enjoying this day in the sun - because I'm so right - just for now. And when the targets are reached I delve back in and start looking again. When I don't know what's happening, I try and stay calm and careful. PS. There's a tug-of-war between the EUR and the JPY about dragging the USD down while the EUR tries to go lower against the USD. This creates "friction" and of course volatility. Not forgetting the vacuum that happens in the EURJPY is also a concern - because Japan doesn't want it to collapse totally either whilst helping out the US.
I think that the â¬$ now has had the brunt of it's move for the day - and not a bad move for that. Look out for good movement on the USDJPY tonight, and the â¬$ will get some good volatility with the european session tomorrow. The trend is set in motion for the rest of the year though in my opinion. edit: David Hartney with JP Morgan interviewed on Bloomberg from the CME floor, said he thought we'll see 1.35 - but still mentioned talk on the floor about opinions being that the â¬$ had come to fast - and was taking a slight breather now. I think 1.35 is unlikely - and certainly 1.40 as was mentioned by the interviewer. Sure, volatility - but I think 1.26 is my best target - better than 1.35.
I'm expecting another 40 tick slide from the 60s down to 20s before close today. This bounce volume was relatively low too. If we reach 20s, I'll probably hold a short position overnight.
Anyone going into the USDJPY as a side-effect of the EURUSD now ? It still looks as a nice trade opportunity to me. I will go for 100+ target on that one, because it seems like a sure thing. Shorting EURUSD from here is just viable with very small positions I think (for me, that is) - and therefore I think I can make more money with bigger trades on something I consider more sure trades. I cannot quell the fear of a possible -100 start to a position down to 1.26, but for my funds it's ok. Now, that's getting into logical thinking - as I moved my funds from â¬s to $s.
I am taking a little chance here - going long the EURUSD for a small position upward for +20 or +30 from here. On the USDJPY I'm short from 104.34. Nice bang if I get this one right, but I am obviously effectively doubling my position - so both are quite small. Small target on EURUSD, while bigger target on USDJPY (100 ticks at least).