I have a little more for trading - and a lot more in other terms and currencies - but I think that for my trading I can take advantage of my beliefs. I still have a little way to go to make up for my losses in equities after the dot-com collapse, so I'm not celebrating yet.
Isn't it nice to be perfectly right ? I just wish I had the courage to exploit it fully. That's why I'm looking into more systems for position trading - I think I can make it big time if I keep this up.
Actually after thinking about it.. I bet the EUR drops quite a lot over the next month.. holiday time always makes the USD stronger.. then the inaguration EUR will probably gain some strength back...
I can never figure out a target that works well at the end. Either I'm too early and get out and start revenge trading. Or the target's never touched. As long as I'm not overleveraged and prevent impulsive entries, trailing works best for my mental state.
Well, I am thinking about what a fortune I could have made on the logical analysis I made last night, but I am not getting into revenge trading it for that reason. I'm looking at taking care of my equity first and foremost - not trying to drive off a cliff at high speed. I think defining a target is like wearing a seat belt; it's mandatory. If you get short here - be prepared to sit through a bounce up to the mid 1.3050s - or a quick slide down. Who knows that will come first ? But with a predefined target you can get out with a profit...
I started completely ignoring numbers except of course their release times. I don't even look at the numbers anymore. I believe that "the market" has its agenda and it'll do regardless of what the numbers say. A good example is the last NFP.
That's true to some point, but I think you need to regard the numbers and the conditions in the market to decide how they will react to it - and IF they will react to it. E.g price-levels coupled with close barriers might prevent the market from moving - or it might whipsaw strongly if some big-wigs get into it contrarian-wise. I.e look at the EURUSD now - they already ploughed through 1.3050s in the european session. What's next on "the agenda" for it ? PS. I am getting no offers to run a hedge fund, though. So I'm not that good.
Yes, watch out for revenge trading. That mental state is my worst enemy. If I were trading with a target today, I would have gotten out around 1.2990. Now I would be plucking my hair and possibly revenge trading. I tried targets before and they completely screwed me up. I took partial profits at 49 and then went short again at 57.
You guys seem to be interested in being right, but do you have a strategy to help you each time? I often wonder how traders derive their "gut feel. I've been buying bottoms and selling tops for years, but until I actually tried to make a quantifiable system was I able to articulate that. Attempting to quantify intuition goes a long way towards a traders success imo
Well, seeing as there is some duality linked to the USDJPY - and it's beginning to drag a little while the EURUSD bounces - I would be careful about that. Think of it as one of the pair pulling the wight of the weaker USD on at a time just now. The â¬$ bounced slightly - while USDJPY might fall considerably - which again will end up in much bigger â¬$ volatility - but at what levels ? I.e the start of the moves are better linked just now - after the Japanese statments last night.