Interesting news from Thomson: "Resistance at 1.2985/05 is proving tough, with four daily attempts stalling here. Daily studies remain overbought, but a break of uptrend line support at 1.2915 and the Nov 10th low at 1.2850 is needed to suggest that the primary uptrend is ready for a major correction. Daily MACD studies are crossing at highly overbought levels and flag caution for bulls. (ams)" and then another article: 23:53 EUR/USD: Easing Back As USD Strikes Bid Tone In Early Asia] Sydney, November 16: The EUR/USD is edging below 1.2940 on the back of a firming USD/JPY. There are option related EUR/USD bids stacked between 1.2900/20 from the same entity that is protecting a 1.3010 option barrier. The bids and the fact that Treasury TIC data is out later today should limit the EUR/USD downside in the immediate-term. Technical analysts note that there is a warning sign brewing in the daily MACD readings. The MACD lines have started to cross lower from very high levels and when this has happened in the past it has resulted in nasty corrections lower. The EUR/USD trades 1.2933/38
I trade (okay.. I attempt to trade lol) the spot market so I'm not able to check the depth of the book and I'm no where near big enough to be able to talk to a trading desk who might have this info. At this point, I'm still trying to figure out what works and what doesn't; the best way for me to approach things, etc. I can say I'm on the path, but I know I'm not there just yet. Hopefully some day.
I was just going to write a post about that "news item". My response to that "news" was smirking - then "what a load of cr*c!" Take a look on the charts. What on earth is "firming up" the USDJPY here at the lows ?!? I would say it strengthens EURUSD with USDJPY back at these low levels .. but I still must see market reactions to this "piece of ... news". It smells like "social engineering" tactics to me. edit: I'm close to getting stopped out - but not yet. Still this shows the beauty of my situation: I'm still with almost all of the maximum profits within the timeframe I was in for the first part of the trade. So this is making me much stronger with regards to accepting getting stopped out - it's like getting stopped out a few ticks below the top. edit2: The stupid thing would be adding to this trade now - at more or less the same level of my entry - because of strong convictions. There is nothing wrong in taking a scalping "side-trade" in my opinion, but letting the same rules govern it as the the position trade is folly.
Consider the Thomson news service with FXCM, RefcoFX or on www.ifrmarkets.com which at least gets you some information like this - albeit not always reliable - just like with the trading desks. You got to sift through the bullsh*t and get what it means in markets.
I wasn't aware that RefcoFX offers the Thomson news service. As I trade through them, I'll need to check it out as I like their reports. Thanks, Steve
I was stopped out there with a -7 loss on those +25 earlier. Not too bad considering ... edit: Hahaha, now Thomson says that USDJPY may have "hit a ceiling" already at 105.44 . The nerve ...
Right now the chart isn't that pretty-looking, but it's coincided with asian session open. Maybe this triggered the options-related offers reported around 1.2900-1.2920 ... Thomson says the same guys have the range by the curlys with the 1.3010 barrier too. edit: it looks spiffier now, and I got in at my initial entry again. I'm not sure how to treat this situation. Hope I get some time to reflect over this. edit:It felt like a scalp, so I profited as a scalp - offsetting the stop out a little. Will look at the initial conditions for the analysis again.
Check out the "order flow" tab for some "rumoured bids and offers" from the desks. Then the rest are "news items". One cannot complain about downward pressure right now for the â¬$, the options down there are perceived as the likelier target than the 1.3000s still. edit: going on 1.2920 didn't seem to trigger anything on either bid or ask .. so I guess there was an element of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) tactics here.