Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Nothing special in the Snow speech.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041115/dollar_snow_1.html

 

Well... this is a little special...

"The dollar last week plumbed its historic low of $1.3007 versus the euro. The European currency, launched on Jan. 1, 2002, at a value of $1.17, fell to about .82 cents before beginning a dramatic two-year rally."

"Our policy on the dollar is well known. We support a strong dollar. A strong dollar is in America's interests," he said.

It could go there again.

*resetting my TP to 1.0000*

Hey, it's only 2500 points profit.

fx

 

From Thomson: "[14:49 EUR/USD: Asian Name Keeping a Lid On] Boston, November 15: The Powell
Rally was short-lived, capped in the high 1.2960s as an Asian central bank looks
to keep the market range-bound, dealers say. One of the main drivers for EUR/USD
strength is on the sidelines as Middle Eastern central banks are closed for a
Muslim holiday. 1.2935/40 is initial support on dips with more at 1.2925. Asian
bids are rumored at 1.2905 on the base. "

 

I was mostly short biased and entered my first short from 1.2990. However, the sharp pullbacks ate all of my profits and some more! These are very ugly chart patterns for my time frame. Crazy day...

 

From Deutsche Bank:
EUR/USD: Top-pickers ‘last stand’

EUR USD (1.2975) Below-consensus European growth figures and encouraging economic data from the US were not able to put the euro under any lasting pressure on Friday. Although it flirted briefly with 1.2875, the risk-reward limit of our latest bullish scenario, the single-currency recovered by the end of the session to close some 100-pips higher. In Asia this morning, it peaked at 1.2995. The current target remains at 1.3110. Friday’s price development suggests that day-traders had again played the short side development. However, despite the short-squeeze, we doubt that these short-term bears will have really thrown in the towel. In our last report we went to great lengths to explain why they would be tempted to try and sell once more near $1.30. Indeed, the euro’s rejection from within a whisker of this level in Asia this morning could already have represented the first of the short-term offers. We do not believe that such supply is capable of turning the trend around. The importance of this prediction is that, if the price moves to a new alltime high, one can be confident that it will do so with a sizeable contingent of short-term bears aboard. Hence, another squeeze will be likely. For the time being, we leave the risk reward limit to the bullish strategy unchanged. However, once the previous 1.3005 summit is overtaken, (and presumably, the short-squeeze is underway) one could comfortably tighten it to 1.2920.

I've been programming during the graveshift hours, so I'm not at my peak for trading. My signals obviously need some updating.

Still, the recent pullbacks from around the ATH levels can't deny the € the luxury of stabilizing, consolidating around this high level. For non-daytraders that is going to make a lasting impression too.

 

moral of story: go long around 1.290?

 

Thank You.

 

Yup been a day for the sidelines - I think tomorrows TIC data is a potential market mover and the market is waiting - since the whole deficit saga is being bandied as the main reason for the dollar demise a strong inflow could put the cat amongst the pigeons. If I was EURO long know (and a short term player) I would be a bit nervous before tomorrow release.

 

It all depends on where you plan to exit, and WHEN you NEED to exit - IF we go to 1.2900. I.e I have no idea for daytrading bottom-fishing around 1.2900.
My timeframe is so short when markets are behaving in a contracted fashion like this. Either I suggest stay away, and wait patiently like a clever old fisherman, or take fast profits - like it seems most are doing. But individual scalping techniques might not always be successful in "difficult markets".

It seems options trading is not being pidestalled as much as last week.