Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. Yes, I got shaken out. This is my worst shake out recently. It went down free falling and then snapped right back. I'm not sure if I'll risk more tonight. Maybe if it retraces down to high 20s.

    You're trading the FX Futures right?

    Chinook
     
    #181     Aug 24, 2004
  2. Vols are getting decimated... the 7day atm straddle is trading at 100pips, unbelievable. The bear gamma leads to a vol-contraction, but this is ridiculous. I hope you're not long-vol Neal.
     
    #182     Aug 24, 2004
  3. no i'm not long vol. do you think that i have all the bad positions? lol. that's one that i managed to sidestep. now that you mention it, seems really cheap (thinking of buying some), lol. seriously, probably has more to do with the time of year than anything else (nobody expecting any impetus for movement this vacation week).
     
    #183     Aug 24, 2004
  4. Chinook, i've got to give you an A for honesty.
     
    #184     Aug 24, 2004
  5. Nah, Bro... I remember a post in which you were mentioning going long vol before the Jul non-farm report. The Sep 14th 1.2100 straddle is valued at 186pips. That should come in to 150 before the number, best to wait until shortly before the non-farm to buy gamma. On the Thursday prior to the release you'll be able to buy the one-week gamma for 125 or so.
     
    #185     Aug 24, 2004
  6. Thanks! I would to keep an honest thread so we can have some sincere discussions here. Plus, hopefully I'll get some feedback and perhaps motivate more idea exchanges.

    Chinook
     
    #186     Aug 24, 2004
  7. Thanks Riskarb but you must have me confused with someone else. I rarely trade options and actually have never traded options on the EUR (or really studied them much for that matter).

    Chinook, I hate to say it but a long here against a stop at tonights low might be a good short-term trade. I'm really starting to suspect that I'm getting married to my positions! lol :0)

    P.S. I'm not adding to positions here but I did just set some stops at tonights low and a little below that on some of the EUR that I'm carrying from the day session. With a snap-back like that, I don't think it should see that level again tonight and if it does, I want out of some of my position.
     
    #187     Aug 24, 2004
  8. I'll try not to open new positions during the early Japanese sessions unless we make a significant double top or bottom. I'd better wait until 2-3am EST when the Europeans start trading. E/$ rarely trends during the Japanese sessions these days.

    Chinook
     
    #188     Aug 24, 2004
  9. Yeah, I went down like a ripe pear falling down from a tree shaken by a hungry bear :) Anyway, I might re-enter during the European session if there's a retrace. But probably I'll go to bed early and get rested well for tomorrow.

    Chinook
     
    #189     Aug 24, 2004
  10. I got out at 1.2161. Probably too soon but I had a good bit of leverage on this trade so I took my 20 pips. I'll get back in if there is more directional movement.

    Cheers
     
    #190     Aug 24, 2004