Well, an attempt to break through to 1.2930s seems unlikely for now, without further ado. Will do an attempt for re-entry into range from here where I stopped my position - with a shorter kind of horizon. For positions I go for 5-10. Depends on how strong conviction I have for the position, and if I average in more - i.e "adding to losers". Since the positions can get "out of hand" I don't like to have any noticable size on them. If I had gotten up earlier today, I might have added a little down there, but since it was already around my entry I didn't add.
Markets are very "stubborn" today with little willingness to send it back into the range - which would be "the safe thing" to do. Cut my short at +7 instead of targetted +10 since my patience wore thin, and the moves are still so erratic.
I was up all night long again. Lots of sleepless hours and ended up with -2 ticks. I went to bed at 8 am EST!
Could it be because you're thinking of position trading and scalping at the same time? By the way, I'm not trying to give you advice or telling you what to do. I'm just trying to start a discussion. For instance, you think about holding a long position for couple of days. But you decide not to. Then it shoots up, now you're frustrated because you didn't go long for a swing trade. Now wouldn't this effect your scalping? I bet you'll be tempted to scalp in the short direction. You're doubling your parameter space.
Well, I think I get into some positions because I see them as really great entries for whatever type of trade. However, I may start thinking a lot about what should my next scalp be - and that sometimes contradicts my "longer term" position. Anyways, how long should a "position" be after all ? It could be almost anything. When I closed this "position" which I had held overnight (I guess it qualifies as such then) - it was because I saw the top of a range. Well, how wise should I decide I am ? Should I always go for 100 ticks if it is to qualify as a position - or should I say - "hmmm, 40-ish ticks .. that's pretty good" ? So, I guess I was satisfied with the "performance" of the trade. I admit that I have trouble with "positions", primarily because I have zero-tolerance for losing trades when scalping. If I had not loosened that during the trade deficit number I would not have gotten -20 ticks scalping that. I was trying to change something that doesn't need changing. During numbers release - it's a scalping game - not a position trading game. Therefore - the scalpers rules are the only which matter - anything else is outright stupid. Well, after the dust settles - or adhering to strict systems with good exit strategies and money management - I think it can be well worth it if one masters it. However, there is this little devils called size & leverage which will tank your little dingy if you are not very, very crafty in managing the stormy weather. I can still do some good analysis on some tech companies and find long-long term winners. I find it a little more difficult with indices - and with currencies I think it's somewhere between. There are some fundamentals which are striking - and I have been long term bull â¬s since around 1.13-ish. I admit it has to do with how the US economy is structured and the changes in how the Bush administration handled it and world matters. Making trade and business work - essential capitalism - is first and foremost about trust. There is nothing (!) trustworthy about the current US administration and it's economy nowadays. Record credit leverage by consumers, refinancing mortgages and an artificial consumer-bonanza made on a lot of unfair trading, production priviliges. Housing prizes have long been sky high after the rapid economic growth in the 90s. Then when we see that many of the economic starry sectors were full of criminals and thieves ... well, it doesn't help. I think there are some fundamental problems, and sometimes the pendulum swings hard when balance is sought. I know I'm ranting here now, but my philosophy is that there are repercussions, reactions to whatever you do. The biggest power in history was the Roman empire - and it got destroyed from within. In today's globally linked society I'm not sure how change will take place - but it surely will. That's all I "know". My trades are scalps because I want comprehensible results and sleep easily at night. I have been there with big daily equity swings and I didn't care - because it was up, up, up .. every month. Well, we all saw how that ended, and some stupid exchange-rules made the former CFO admit he had to lie to investors. That just made up my mind, and the hefty drawdown linked to it. I won't let anybody "talk my trades into a drawdown" anymore. I want full and absolute control - which I mostly have when scalping. Within reasonable timeframes I guess that's also possible with longer term position trades. I do think one have to plan and calculate a lot of things - like how other longer term traders are positioning themselves - what events are in the calendar and how they probably will affect price levels over days/weeks. Taking all these factors into consideration - and keeping a close eye on intermediate events and the external reactions with their market effects - maybe it's possible to "plan a position"; almost like a battle campaign. Using large time-frame charts with events and reactions plotted - then maybe you can exploit this knowledge into a manageable long term trade. It's just somewhere I'm not. For now I'm content with 40 ticks on a trade - albeit small sized. I'm likewise very happy with a decent sized +5 or +10 scalp. Sometimes I'll be happy I got and average of +1 instead of -10 on a hefty sized trade. I watch my equity - and that's all that matters in the long run to be a survivor. I got to find "my way" of position trading - and to me it involves going for bigger target than my scalps - and with less size. Now, the only thing that should get it into the front page of my How-To is learning when to let it be free and run - as far as it can. That's what I need to focus on - the leash - and how far I will let it go. I don't see any particular help in deploying some mechanical leash - at least not below some pre-defined target profit. Then every stormy wave must be scrutinized with care - and the constant question of "would I enter here for the same target?" being repeated all the time. Filtering into longer term information, trending signs is the way to go for me here. In the end - I won't be sorry for locking in a profit larger than any normal scalp. As long as I keep on winning - that's what matters.
Tomorrow we are going over 1.3000 and staying there. Yen is much stronger which is pulling down EUR/Yen but EUR/Yen had a nice upside move last few days and is overall in an uptrend. I bet EUR follows the Yen stronger once Europe opens tonight and then New York will take us above 1.3000 early on and keep us there. This is just what my crystal ball tells me today. It has failed me before, be forwarned. Nonetheless, I am still long EUR and buying more on each dip tonight.
Please Coinz, haven't you had enough losses? I mean seriously, we were debating this back when the EUR was 1.21-1.22. Obviously, you were dead wrong. If you can't see that the dollar is in the midst of one of the most significant depreciations on record, I think you might need some new glasses. The EUR has made a new high in 3 of the last 4 trading sessions. Please do not pollute this thread with sillyness. It's one of the few good threads on ET. Even if you are right on this, you are wrong. Have a little humility it may serve you better in your paper trading.
By the way, if you really believe the EUR is going to see low 1.2800s tomorrow, please hit my bid for 100 contracts on Globex @ 1.2910. It's there for the hitting and more will be below.