This has been a unique day. I just can't let my profits run, it just keeps on switching directions. 45 minutes to Fed decision...
Reading more on Thomson news comments makes me a little more doubtful we will go 1.30+ today again. The action being a tad whippy and light at times makes me believe that we will see trader exhaustion come into play towards the FOMC announcement. At least being right about pre-emptive move ahead of FOMC was right on the money. Greenspan being worried about the twin deficits and voicing weak USD intention with no rate hike today would just make it a perfect day, though .....
From thomson: "Should the Fed suggest rate hikes are on hold in any way the Dollar would slide and keep those long gamma in the game. It's a waiting game at the moment. "
I have a feeling that lows of the day will be tested (and bounce up) before 14:15 EST. Edit: I'm back to (light) short mode. The book's getting light. Bid side is weaker.
The talk about central banks in Japan, Korea buying USD and then the ECB complacency - then Italians saying intervention must be studied ... it makes for fretted minds. I'm getting tired of all the smoky talk amidst the whip-action and think we need to rise above it and see that USD will probably appreciate a little with a rate-hike, but then give back into the approaching holiday season - making US exporters a little more smiley-faced. Hmmm, anyone smell a rat-trap here ?
I decided to close my short with +4. I need to save my mental energy for the potential trading frenzy after the Fed decision. I need to keep my mental balance in check. I've done quite well today. A last minute stubbornness with high leverage can easily turn good profits into terrible loss!
I exited my position as well, but with a -14. Oh well, I think it could have been worse. Still +20 for the day, but that one stung. I think I'm out until the FOMC, too.
Seems like a few buyers below 1.2880 being willing to bet the FOMC statement. More so than over that level. 3 mins ahead.
Status quo on wording but with .25% increase ... It's just like we could presume - a range developing .... and it's around toggling 1.29 or yesterdays's close for what it can get. Trade deficit pre-empted all the action, and added to caution and exhaustion. Just look at the lame action right now. Seems traders called it quits already for the day.
thomson: "[19:19 EUR/USD: Ticks Up Modestly As Fed Does the Expected] Boston, November 10: Just what the doctor ordered from the Fed; a 25 bp hike and the promise to stay the present course. No surprise there and market reaction should be minimal. 1.2850 is support on dips, 1.2935 resistance on rallies. We would expect quiet markets for the bulk of the afternoon as many have tomorrow off. EUR/USD trades at 1.2895. "