Yes, I think trade balance can pre-empt a bigger move - and lock in some ranges before the FOMC statement gets analyzed properly. On the Bloomberg wire - Greenspan is reportedly worried about his would-be successor's handling of the double deficits. Hah! http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aupqr_mhmBUs&refer=news_index
Another +10 scalp move ... It's too easy right now. Well, better to take a little rest until numbers get released. Ta-ta. edit: any takers on to around 1.2900 from where I called it (from 1.2875-ish -- 1.2890+ now) ? I was happy with +10 and got out on first stalling. Now I'm really putting those beans to rest. edit2: LOL - ROFL. China's export surplus was USD 53bn for october - "almost exact number expected for US trade deficit" said the presenter on Bloomberg UK. Hehehe - and there we see 1.2899 .. and 1.2900+ ... ahh I guess those beans relaxed me a little too much, and maybe because it's 05:30 AM ... I better shut up.
I'm a big buyer of EUR now. Also started setting some shorts in Treasury. I believe Central Banks are paring Treasury/Dollar positions.
I saw Friday's move as Central Bank (Bank of China, etc.) sellers of $ and Treasuries. They needed liquidity to execute. I have no firm evidence of this however.
I expected some more downward probing pre - data release and FOMC - looks like you and others are betting on a worse than expected deficit number and Greenspan sticking to the orginal text. (I suppose a fair bet)
Just betting on the trend rather than a specific short-term event like tomorrow. Dollar is in the midst of a major down move here. Got to get in whenever you have opportunity.
I just entered my first real money position. Long at 43 after breaking the 40 level and retracing to that level (on the 5 min - 11:10 bar). TP at 84 SL at 25. Or earlier TP before data. Only 1000 units though
Where do you think the Euro/Dollar will go Trader-ya1? 1.3500, 1.4000? Do you see any risk of intervention by central banks at those levels that could halt a further uptrend?