So you will most likely get in tonight, say between 1AM - 6AM if you can see a trend (say euro is +13 you will go long before the morning)? Or am I mis-interpreting?
I love it when I read bloomberg about currencies.. check this out: ``The Europeans made a decision to send a clear signal that they're not inviting euro buying,'' said Steven Englander, chief currency strategist for the Americas at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The euro will weaken to $1.25 in a month, he said. but then later in the same article say: The dollar may resume its decline amid concern about near record U.S. trade deficits, said Brown Brothers' Browne. A bigger deficit means more dollars need to be converted to other currencies to pay for imports.
Well not exactly. I'll start monitoring the market especially the pullbacks and pullups. If I see that volume is preferring a certain direction, and it doesn't look like we'll chop and the price is on the right direction with respect to my adaptive MA then I'll open a position.
Seems like some are making their own moves in the EuroFX without the moves of the spot to support them. It was interesting how the 100-lot was holding the EuroFX up while spot was a little lower. It finally burst a few minutes before 23:00 EST. But seeing as there was significantly stalling when a lonely 10-lot was left hanging a little above 1.2965-ish - it was actually a larger shock to see the 100-lot go ... I guess it says a lot about the "action" we're seeing. I'm squared with another +6 tick scalp for the day - giving +2 total and then commissions for 3 R/Ts. Looking for more opportunities now is out of the question ... let's have some fiesting when the numbers start rolling tomorrow - pre-empting FOMC moves.
No. You can also trade what you see - but then it's more difficult to let your profit run, I suppose.
That's why I don't get those 100, 200 ticks when I do scalping, I guess. I knew I was doing something wrong, especially since I was having a bad day yesterday. If I traded the news yesterday I would probably have a much better performance ... ... or could it be that I would have to do like FX-Concepts and have a few months timehorizon ? Risk 500 ticks for 500 ticks profits ? What leverage should I use on these profit-running trades ? Do you recommend using something like 30% ? On the EuroFX now, it seems the only action we see is the MM arbing the spot. It's like rigor mortis is setting in already. I suspect he hits his own positions like 80% of the time - time which 99.99% of the time is without movement. Strangely enough, he seems to only want to collapse levels upwards ... Could it be that he has a 'few long contracts' ? edit: a few minutes ago some currency analyst on Bloomberg UK was saying that he expected the USD to "really move today". He failed to say which direction, though. edit2: I guess the USD can really move on the news from outgoing John Ashcroft that safeguarding the US from threats of terror and crime has been achieved.
Watching european open with a big portion of some hot mexican beans (homemade - and A LOT of jalapeños) ... I expect it to be a little hot and a good amount of cracks and bangs. Seeing it go below 1.2884 right now - with a nice +18 on my short here, and getting it too. I guess I trade best when I see what I need to do. It took no time too. I can't stomach the longer term positions as easily as those mexican beans. Seeing the "action" since around 14:00 EST yesterday has been like watching someone in a full body-cast playing mini-golf.
I "forgot" to scale down the trade on the demo account further. I just heard the "[tooloup]"-sound of it getting liquidated. Oh, well - just a roughly 50% drawdown on the account (back to 300% in comparison to last weeks 600% gain). I guess that will make it a little harder to get that 1000% in there. Closing in on the 1-2860 it's getting a little dangerous - but the breach of 1.2880 was obviously going for the reported stops there. Finally! - the first gutsy move since ... many hours! I don't expect the market eyeing anything more significant than this stop - so we just saw a range-extension, and it would be quite safe to go long towards 1.2900-ish from here, in my opinion.
Nice call Gringinho - Some stop running seems to be the order of the day till Trade Balance figures and FOMC is out of the way - this could go down to 28/2780