When "barriers", "exotics", "triggers" or "strikes" are mentioned at various levels - that's because of options .. also double no-touch etc. I get these news from Thomson - and find it quite valuable. When there are big sized options ready to expire we see a fight towards that level - sometimes it seems a move to "set up" the rest of the market and retreat back with some nice profits - other times they breach through to claim the prize.
Looks like we're bak into the "I'll check out the action around the european close" doldrums again ... Will stay watching the markets, but see no reason to trade right now - other than staying on that almost-50-demo-trade. I'm starting to ponder a longer term position again though - but trade numbers tomorrow will be a little catalyst for more thoughts and actions, I think.
Here we go: http://www.phlx.com/pbot/index.html They have settlement prices but I can't find volume info. Edit: I sent an email to them. I'll post it here once I got an answer back.
I think they said they would start trading currencies on electronic XL platform Q1 2005 - so it won't be yet. See http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=605131#post605131 .
When some larger volumes are just sitting tight lower/higher in the book - a little away from the best action .. and the best action is small sizes (<10) in the book and in front of the bigger size; when those small sizes start to continously getting hit - without any real follow-through ... that's called BAITING A TRAP. (I started writing this as I saw it started to happen around 1.2906-7 bids getting hit small time - and now it's back above 1.2910) Sorry to those getting suckered.
So let me see if I understand this... A large order will come in.. for example, 1000 contracts at an ask of 1.2906. Then the same person will then start buying small sizes to increase the price say, up to 1.2910, and then eventually up to 1.2915. then the same person will sell as many contracts as they can and it will plumet? (it just happened reverse of what i explained now though, i take it?)
Now there is an attempt at establishing 1.2925-30 for building further support level and rise upwards, or that will be the result anyways - unless european close does an all-out-reversal after this. Similar action to the 1.2906 was seen on "flimsy retrace" from 1.2930 back to 1.2924. We're still in range bound, choppy trading until 1.2940s are breached.
This is getting just as boring as most of yesterday; being spoiled by the latest breakout does make me a lot more impatient for someone doing something constructive here. Luckily, we have all gotten smarter after the choppy trading not so long ago. Tomorrow would have to be a lot more fun - and like I mentioned earlier - this consolidation above 1.29 is the best thing that could happen for those longer term bulls. It WILL mean we go for 1.3000 - and then everyone will say - "OF COURSE ... EVERYONE KNEW THAT". BTW around size of 20 contracts is best average for me .. but most times in steps ... then 40 contracts is about limit for normal trading. Going above - or to 100+ would give you a nice sweat even if you were trading out of the north pole. I'm talking about individual investors now, and market makers do take notice of larger lots - esp. in later sessions ... so some "stealthing" is always nice. Sometimes averaging into a better entry is worth the effort ... i.e "adding to losers".
It's much more easy to trade when you know what's happening -and why. The fundamentals (news) are the leading indicators - TA are the lagging indicators.
I do get the feeling I'm a god sometimes, but reality quickly slaps me on my head. Therefore I'm quite content in using the quick glimpses I get on insight into markets. Rising above all of this and grabbing those 200 pips on friday would almost propel one into the ranks of those on Mt. Olympus in my view.