Funny how that mid-20s level is settling in, isn't it ? I wonder how I came to think about it when we went to record highs... trying to get the train of thought from friday back into my head.
I think we're setting up for a spike :> I'm in small around the 20s seeing what's gonna happen.. I'll probably sell if it dips into the low teens. edit: disclaimer: i'm an optimistic ;o)
Don't get "used to" the big volatility like we saw initially today and on friday ... it's never lasting. Depending on it for your next trade may also tempt you into something which is not too well founded, perhaps not the best of entries for current conditions etc. Seeing how it has settled down - take it for what it is - choppy, consolidating and perhaps range-bound for a little. Then work on your strategy for when the next big move will start. It could be because of new option strikes, or it could be because of FOMC wednesday - but it won't be because of the big moves earlier. Be patient and carefully calibrate your trade ... use your fear of the markets - and the fear of it not moving - to your advantage. It's a little like playing chicken with big trucks - and it's mostly a waiting game. Or do demo-trading in between like me. (I probably sound like Mr. Miyagi - must be my martial arts instructing background)
I'm exhausted--time for bed now (11am local time!). I managed to make net +47 ticks (another 10 ticks went to commissions). I'm flat now so I should be able to sleep in peace. Time to wear my eye mask and ear plugs to simulate night conditions! Good luck to you all during the rest of the session.
I regretted not staying up to follow the down move .. but I have been where you are now (exhaustion)- so I don't really envy you. I much prefer watching this next development - stalling that is. Brummy Rummy seems to be leaving ... (if I correctly understand his recap of his work during this press conference - just sound - Video buried under 20+ windows). edit: or is it just a bummer ... about Falluja (I guess he had to plug a little about his exploits)
Before the major down move, there were 20+ tick spikes which all stopped me out since I was trailing and I ended up not entering short right after the third one (I did for the first two). It was kind of bumpy ride for me! But the swings during the day made up for me.
Surprise move in extension or something below 1.2900. My demo account is roughly -90k on this trade so far .. that's a little - I entered just below 1.2950.
The reports I've read said that during the asian session they are anticipating the euro to go down.. interesting that it is doing the reverse.. I wonder if it will keep it up.. hmmm..
In general, I've learned to take predictions of experts with a grain of salt. Although the reports you mentioned basically got it right so far. Only it went down quickly and couldn't get through resistance below 1.2900 so now it's going up. btw- if it's anything other than technicals I missed it because I was "busy" watching The lord of the Rings and then Las Vegas. Cheers, TRADERguy