Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. My prediction: we'll test 1.2950 shortly and then fall to 1.2880s and close around 1.2920 :)

    Edit: I'm not putting any money on the above prediction. However, if we indeed test 1.2950 and fail then I'll be short....
     
    #1661     Nov 8, 2004
  2. Yup amazing how those demo accounts can keep up notching the profits - I noticed you are toying with longer term trading. Good luck with this.

    I'm pretty confident I'll get back in the swing of things - although the confidence has taken a knock (maybe I need another holiday:))


    Chinook - interesting prediction, I like it - although I'm starting to think I only want to trade this market from the long side. I think we are about to do the test....
     
    #1662     Nov 8, 2004
  3. I found the way I got back in the game was by absorbing all of the news I could, and then doing some trades - demo spot and real EuroFX. I did some very stupid, rabid trades on the demo at first - and that scared me into doing better for my EuroFX. Therefore the demo spot is sort of an vent for me.

    Ahh, NOW we go 1.2950 ...
    I did some sleepy scalps - with -1 for a short, then -6 for a long, then 8 for a long ... which could have done a little better obviously. I don't like it when I decide to stop quickly, and then it goes to another perceived target immediately. It sort of shows me missing some information in the books. At least it is action-packed, and I'm comfortable with much bigger size today.
    +2 -1 -6 +8 for a +3 day so far (the +2 was the mid 60s from friday which I "paused").

    Gotta stop all this typing .. at 60s now.
    :D
     
    #1663     Nov 8, 2004
  4. You will. Just don't rush it.

    I've been a bad boy. I went long at 30 after the pullback from 40 to 27. Sold at 48. I'm not shorting it unless my adaptive MA turns short.
     
    #1664     Nov 8, 2004
  5. I think it'll do some more high testing now, but I'm still a little drowsy. Pain is seen ahead, also big bucks on those barriers.

    edit: the current moves have locked me out a little, since I have to let go of all the ideas I had before resting - since they've already happened ... still it seems like it's going back to the highs which is what I originally was thinking.

    If it would get into a larger range - that would be the most difficult for me right now, since I'd have to adapt my mindset to this too, but this action seems to be able to handle a move to 1.3000.
     
    #1665     Nov 8, 2004
  6. Going long on demo below 1.2950 when stalling went into a slight drizzle. Target around highs.

    This vents off some of the frustration, but does not make me money - just keeps me from losing any. :D
     
    #1666     Nov 8, 2004
  7. Man, I pulled an all-nighter after sleeping 11-12 hours both Sat&Sun!

    My bias is shifting on the long side especially after this low vol pullback from the 60s....
     
    #1667     Nov 8, 2004
  8. i'm scalping .. getting a few +3s and +6s here and there.. not like friday's movement though! :> on a side note, i have not traded euro through a FED rate hike .. has anyone? what is the trend either way?
     
    #1668     Nov 8, 2004
  9. Thomson notes a options-dominated market today. There was this 1.2940 cut earlier which gave strong moves - and the big 1.3000 also seems a likely target for "the big boys" according to Thomson / www.ifrmarkets.com . Oil still under pressure and interest diffs continously widening might give fuel to some big fireballs if it decides to crash & burn.

    I think normally Fed hikes are discounted in markets, but act as trigger. There is no surprise expected from this meeting. I'm an amateur in these matters, though.
     
    #1669     Nov 8, 2004
  10. I have traded only a few. I think latest NFP days have been more action packed than the hike days.
     
    #1670     Nov 8, 2004