Today is quite special ... 12:30 GMT there will be a G10 announcement - the start of mettings for today and tomorrow. They will discuss currencies amongst other things. The uncertainties is what aches me ... it was quite easy to identify when the marketmaker (MM) was wanting to pull things up - as they had 130+ contracts on Interbank bid at those times - and otherwise they had 100+ contracts at best ask+2 ticks. Now, it's starting to look a little more testy, and I don't especially know how it will fare in the start - other than that it won't go for 1.3000 ... it will probably stall. So - you have a nominal 30 tick target then, I presume. I think we'll see a little chop - like in the asian session - with undecision. When US RTH session draws nearer we'll see fear like we saw before FTSE open - and a trace back to friday's closing levels is my guess. During US session - perhaps before with some excruciating grinding pain extension before open - I think there will be more chop before some cards get played or tossed. If we get into 1.2990+ , then those holding the 1.3000 might show they've already taken countermeasures to equalize the break of those, so they might fall ... or we'll see some opposition. The talk is quite sky high year-end levels for â¬$, but with wednesday's FOMC meeting we'll probably see more volatility. I think today is special, becuase it will show how easy we can get much, much higher. Otherwise, the year-end, going into holiday session is infamous for currency volatility, illiquidity making big moves easier (according to pundits on Bloomberg).
I got out at a little profit (2 ticks) - because it didn't get any bigger slide at the open - so I figured it would get back up - at least some good probability for higher testing/chop a little. There are probably not too many players in there who're betting on a bigger move right now - so there will be range extensions until someone goes for some poorly defended levels. I can't see myself sitting through the whole of the european session, so maybe I won't get back in before later - but it will be for the same target if it still exists - and we're not in 1.3020+.
Looks a bit choppy alright. I think there won't be a big move right now, so better get some sleep. I will re-enter for my target if it still exists - it's just that I can't allow me to set it on auto-trailing or stop .. since it would only be "random" anyways - and thus meaningless for me. Trading positions requires more time away from the screen than I imagined - but some working, proven system needs to be in place which I can have confidence handles market conditions dominating now. I don't know any such system, so therefore I pause while I rest a little.
I got back in short again. In fact, it's getting choppy you're right. I have decent stamina now, so I'll sit through this for a bit.
This is why I rarely hold positions away from screen. Plus we have all these sudden spikes to deal with!
I'm switching to the long side here. I got b/e out of the shorts. Edit :First long got stopped out. Second one was +10. Now I'll go back to shorts...
I'm back to short now. The 20+ ticks upswings during shorts threw me off completely. I got hit by three of the them. The last one really looked like a trend change and thus I didn't re-enter short. Then it was a very clean ride down about 44 ticks without me Oh well.