Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. I think we'll see a little more choppy conditions on the open, so that's why I bailed out. Nice profits, although I didn't expect it so soon. It's definitely the way to go for propelling myself into bigger profits, though. Next time I will wait for similarily clear entry, as having 1.5 weeks profits in around 24h without any commission to speak about is tempting as "strategy". Need to study where I would find good entries next time.
     
    #1511     Nov 4, 2004
  2. pretty good move. My trailing stop got hit during the retracement. No re-entry for me, so I get to watch and see what happens. :D
     
    #1512     Nov 4, 2004
  3. I have the impression that trailing stops are best after passing a certain target ? I am not very comfortable using trailing stops, but I see the advantage when profits are going to be locked in - but letting it ride to a perceived maximum. Anyways, doesn't that already entail a better target ? I have some trouble understanding the full benefits of trailing, because in most conditions a fair amount of swings will occur, even if still trending - so time-horizon for the trade will perhaps decide the size of the trailing stop ?

    Anyways, having a fully mechanical exit for discretionary entries does seem to have some fundamental problems IMO. Well, here the € seems to have gotten some more fuel to it's fire.

    I guess we'll see more choppiness during this US RTH - mainly because of "false perceptions" on importance of tomorrow's NFP number - IMO. :D
     
    #1513     Nov 4, 2004
  4. Hmmm, maybe I'll have to take it easy a little now. I'm shorting here above 1.2890 ... :D
    Dangerous attitude, and I think the possibility that it might break up stronger very quick is playing with my mind - making me want to recoup potential further gains on the former position trade. +8 on 2 short scalps so far.
     
    #1514     Nov 4, 2004
  5. I really don't know. In my opinion no exit strategy is perfect. I followed my plan and that's good enough for me. 50 pips aint bad though. I know it could be more, but that thinkings not constructive for me :D

    With a move like this I doubt I'll have a setup for Friday... but ya never know. Euro looks strong here. I guess this confirms Bush's win?? :confused: haha
     
    #1515     Nov 4, 2004
  6. it's interesting reading how scalpers think. You guys use price action, swing traders use indicators.

    well good luck with your trade, so far it looks good :D
     
    #1516     Nov 4, 2004
  7. I've been shorting since the 80s ;o) hoping it is going to dive down for a few pips to break even .. i think you may be right, we are destined for 1.29+ today
     
    #1517     Nov 4, 2004
  8. This baby looks ready to pop. No more shorting here for a little while.

    edit: Thomson says that Middle East names which capped above 1.28 with a lot of profit-taking are massive buyers here. They report talk that they have bought around 7 bn €s last 24h - perhaps as oil revenue diversification. Also, they note that Trichet did not talk down the € when having the opportunity.
     
    #1518     Nov 4, 2004
  9. Today's european close will be very interesting - in fact, the imminent US equities open as well - all the way through 1.3000 later today ? I can't seem to make up my mind, and here's where the lack of systematic trading becomes a factor. I better stay a little with the scalping today, I find it much easier to think reflectively about longer targets when I see some consolidation.

    edit: US labour productivity at lows, while US labour costs are at highs -- doesn't sound good.
     
    #1519     Nov 4, 2004
  10. Thomson reports the size of the 1.2900 option as being $12 mn, and that the holder and seller battle it out. Anyone not seeing 1.2900 some time later today ? The first attempt was quite strong, but didn't quite do it. I think I will set in a long position from my demo spot - which has had a ridiculous return the last days.

    Thomson reports a few US investment bank names selling here, on beliefs that the 1.29 would not yield yet.

    edit: to me the 1.2870-ish capping doesn't seem to be very convincing, so I will switch to long bias for now.
     
    #1520     Nov 4, 2004