I think it normally would give a similar weak, strong USD. I noticed the chop after the european close, which sort of threw me off on what to think for a while. I think friday's jobs number will be a little more instrumental than today's concession in the short run. I guess we have status quo - USD will continue to depreciate. Got to work with what we have now, even though it feels like working under someone one don't like too much. The world should perhaps take heed and not try and tell people in places like Dixville (where 19 out of 26 voters voted for Bush) what they should vote. Not all of the US is metropolitan like NYC, LA, SF, Las Vegas etc - and most people are simple and rural. The senator elect from Illinois had a clear view of how to speak to "simple, practical voters". I have had a longer ⬠bias whatever the outcome would be, but there might be a little relief now because of "quick, clean" decision. It can be offset or re-inforced by payrolls number on friday. The current level is rather precarious, and could go either way. Still, there are no indications to get out of this consolidation range between 1.2640-1.2840.
I read somewhere that if the NonFarm payroll is less than 100K or around abouts, the EUR is going to jump.. and if it's greater than 150K or so, it may stagnate / decline a little..
The last Challenger report showed layoffs in the 100k range, and 2 consecutive months of sizable layoffs doesn't bode well. This could give stronger meaning to the NFP on firday as some traders will have entered trades on the election result now being almost final and indications by the Challenger report etc. I think the non-US traders will most likely tend to ignore any election effect now that it seems Bush has a final win. Call it living in denial, or focusing on the real, fundamental issues of trading the EURUSD.
Thomson now says they see two last days as trying to extend uptrend consolidation range downwards below 1.2640 - but failed. With levels close to the top of the range, and Fibo projected high off 1.2660-1.2730 hourly upswing. They see 1.2640 as wave 4 and move to new all time highs most likeyl. They recommend buy bounces from 1.2730 or better with target ATH. I'm definitely long too, and the low range of the chop proved a good entry (on both spot and EuroFX). This will be another try at a position trade. Maybe I will let it go for days or weeks. It's not a very big size. Target is ATHs, and stops around 1.2600 - although not in place yet. edit: I think this last hours will show that US traders are afraid of not being on the possible up move from other foreign sessions coming up shortly for the USD. edit2: remember the popular talk now - from people like O'Neill in Goldman-Sachs, Bill Gross in Pimco etc. - they are all about further USD weakening now.
Easy making money today, isn't it ? Took some scalp profits on a side trade on EuroFX from the 90s too. edit: what a sad morning though. edit2: The long-term position is more than +30 now. edit3: +40 and still looking good. edit4: it's hard looking at almost +50, and then watching the book and quick changes ... but got to fire&forget that long position for a while - because the conditions are still there for me to get in - although we have a bit higher levels now.
Thomson reports resistance linked to options at 1.2850, 1.2870, 1.2900, 1915, 1.2930, 1.2950 and 1.3000 ... Hope that doesn't scare anybody - and sometimes it's a little bit of rumours too. There are no big resistance other than 1.2850 IMO. Then upwards is a cakewalk until 1.3000-ish. Kerry is getting a little soggy-bottom in his speech.
I sell my positions, go to lunch, come back, and it's spiked! argh! now to make the decision to go long or not!
Depends on your time-horizon and style. Very short-term scalping you got to watch the orderbook. I still think we'll go at least around 1.2840-ish, but it all depends. There will be now 1.2850 break during today's RTH. US players are not that feisty. If you look into extending into asian, european session - do look for momentum to get through 1.2850. Most likely it will come from crossing-pressure .. esp. USDJPY and australasian pairs. So the clue here is to have the EURUSD on the high end of the range - close towards 1.2850 as possible - anything above 1.2815-ish will do it. Could get very short-temr choppy, consolidation there, though. US investors will now look into foreign markets for better returns. This will further excacerbate the USD depreciation effect. It's a shut-up case IMO. The ⬠doesn't have the energy to drive USD further down by itself, but oil and other currencies will add up and sink the dingy it's in. Looking at almost +50 again. edit: took a 5 tick short scalp side-trade too, just to prove to myself that I'm able to have a long-term position as well as having shorter term "fruitful biases".
well right now i'm just kind of doing short trades... buying at 19, selling at 25, etc.. doesnt seem to be moving that much.. when do you anticipate more market movement tonight?