It's just my protest-vote. If Bush wins I think like trade-ya1, that USD will get weaker ASAP. Bush has not done a great deal for fiscal sanity, and being excempt from IMF scrutinous measures, they probably will not do a lot either. Oil prices will probably continue a good stretch and energy-related buddies, a long with raw-materials will probably see newer highs with increased competition as USD depreciates. Bush is bad for multi-nationals, although he's pro free trade etc. - it's just that in his narrowous mind he has made several protectionist moves. Recall Steve Forbes on Bloomberg earlier tuesday.
Not sure about your analysis. EUR/USD popped when the exit polls first came out favoring Kerry (before they were released to the public). Unfortunately, I don't really have a handle on this...it seems to me that a Bush win should spell further dollar weakness but the price seems to be saying differently. Not sure why but a dollar rally might occur from a bush victory--maybe just because everyone is relieved that it isn't a dragged out nightmare like last time?
I think I partially agree -- for the rest of the night (here in the states) and until the first court case is announced, I believe the USD will not weaken--
Yes, you're right. Whatever the president - the USD is going further down over the next 6 months. That's more into the fundamentals with growing deficit, increasingly difficult Iraq situation .. and Bush would get little further support in EU etc. edit: also remember the EURJPY cross pressure in this asian session. It gives a little skewed impression. edit2: hope you guys took that small dip opportunity, because I smell higher â¬s as the asian session starts to wane. edit3: dangerously choppy now, someone is playing. Remember there is an established range - it will not be broken by the outcome this night - during the asian session. IMO, of course
(NBC,FOX) ... according to Bloomberg, but people stil in line in Ohio. Hmmm, but it still seems a little vague. Need to hear it from CNN.
Ohio voting stopped at 7:30 Eastern--source Ohio secretary of state being interviewed on Fox. It's over; Bush won. But Kerry might fight it for a while.