Actually, I didn't understand the local sell-off response in EuroUsd since there were no surprises so far. But then who am I to predict what the beast will do. I just trailed my position. I might get short in upper 90's depending on how the volume will behave.
I think the deficits will continue anyhow, whoever wins, for the foreseeable future. Therefore we will still see a weeker $ and stronger ⬠on the back of needed reforms in the US which won't seem to be coming. Also, see how some of the states are really close in the early counts and how this offsets a clear direction. Remember, a close call with lawyers getting in to nitpick and tear off their monetary part off the election cake will also mean a weaker $, * AND * a much weaker standing for the US with regards to the democratic process. If you watched CNN earlier you could see how very large US brand-names are hurting very much internationally under Bush, and this won't exactly improve with a win for him.
Do you care to explain, because from what I understand the 1.2640 is a fairly solid base as far as I have read analysts. E.g Thomson cites it as "perfect match for Fibo projection wave 4 low derived from the 1.1970-1.2387 base from August, and projected 5th wave high is at 1.3058." They're looking to buy bounces from this support. Others like Englander at Barclays sees a range-bound trade for a while whoever wins, then has a 1.32 target. ... and DON'T FORGET that the uncertainties and possible Florida recounts (they're using scanners which would involve very long recount time) will be very, very USD negative. edit: also some judge (in Philadelphia I think it was) ruled that absentees' votes would not be counted today; and republican lawyers said they would challenge every single name on that list if they thought they were not entitled to be on the list. Looks to be getting a little messy already to me. It's a shame it has to be like this. Better get some real democratic system in there with popular vote, or like the Colorado initiative to split electoral votes based on popular vote. Just goes to show how twisted, perverted the 2-party system in the US has gotten.
I'm having a little election nite happy hour here--After my second stiff cocktail and some side of nuts, I'm feeling very happy I'm now short from 1.2690 and it's creeping up on me. I'm hoping that it'll bounce back from low 1.27s...
I don't particularly like the IB shutdown from 00:00 EST and 30-40 mins tonight. Also the dem voter-states have stayed up longer and will come in later, so we'll probably see more swing up later in the session. Pennsylvania battleground given to Kerry by NBC,CBS according to Bloomberg radio/TV. Arizona to Bush by CBS according to Bloomberg too.