Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. Hehe, yes. I already did the 5- and 6-digit financial goals when I was working .. and those were yearly target jumps mind you. There was no time like those 90s until 99. :)

    I have this target indefinitely - no time limit. :D


    It seems the current levels on the EuroFX are bewildering ... I see 3-4 tick spreads a lot around and below the 1.2730s. Who would trade then ... ? Worse than spot FX.
     
    #1291     Oct 26, 2004
  2. I've never seen it like this before! I saw single bid ask levels >10,000 right around 8:30 am EST!!! Also, bid asks of multiple thousands were switching sides.

    Has anyone else seen these?
     
    #1292     Oct 27, 2004
  3. Yes, the volume was extremely heavy around the durable goods number with thousands of contracts within timespan of a few seconds in transactions. Baffling.
    I wish Thomson would comment EuroFX too. :)
     
    #1293     Oct 27, 2004
  4. Almost all the time, around the important number releases, the TOTAL bid/ask goes down to 50-100. I can't believe the heavy bid ask volume this time.

    Edit: Do you save the bid/asks from the book?
     
    #1294     Oct 27, 2004
  5. Yes, although I imagine they are not snapshot-true when numbers are released ... then I only trust the best bid/ask data. I need to get other sources API finished - e.g Velocity X-Trader to see if that one is complete with changes to orderbook.
     
    #1295     Oct 27, 2004
  6. Thomson are short at 1.2800 with target 1.2685 and stop above 1.2840 ...
    I don't think I agree with them on this on just yet.

    Like Deutsche Bank reports:
    EUR USD (1.2755) In NY trading yesterday, the euro embarked on its biggest decline since the runaway advance got underway two weeks ago. Admittedly, the less than one-percent correction (the low was 1.2730) was not much when set against the 5 percent rally that preceded it. But it was more than enough to restore the faith of short-term bears whose earlier attempt to pick the top in the mid-$1.26s ended in disaster. The risk of intervention still seems to be the principal argument of the top-pickers. It is noteworthy that comments from ECB officials on the single-currency have tended to be rather sanguine during the recent rally – when they have bothered to mention it at all. Nevertheless, traders seized on news that Chirac and Schroeder plan to meet to discuss the “worrying” euro. Also the re-emergence of complaints by European exporters – led yesterday by the CEO of Airbus – might have encouraged some traders to believe that one of them could actually do something about it. The current objective remains 1.3040. Day-traders are likely to prefer the short side again today. As a result, an early bounce will attract some supply. However, these may simply be the positions that ultimately fuel a move to new highs. Also look for profit-taking demand from this group ahead of 1.2680. The risk-reward limit to the bullish scenario is unchanged at 1.2645/50.

    Thomson could help propel this thing higher. I agree with them that charts, studies show overbought, but just wouldn't underestimate the momentum that has just started to emerge. The fairly brief lows of around 1.2730 -- and with wide spreads on the EuroFX the first time down on the dip -- didn't seem that convincing to be pushing lower. The bounce up was much more spunky, and like I mentioned earlier, re-calibrating to the reality of the breakout might offer stop-running opportunities tempting for the broad €-bullish market.

    You usually don't get two chances on the same opportunity in this market, so comments like "short/long on second failure" seems a little optimistic to me.
    :)

    edit: no shortage on comments of "european central banks - scandinavian - aggressive selling" now from Thomson too. The better-than-expected exisiting home sales number might offer an excuse for a dip, though. I think oil inventories in 30 mins are going to be watched more closely as OPEC figures talk about possible USD 80 per oil barrel next year.
     
    #1296     Oct 27, 2004
  7. Anyone hear anything? We're throwing in the towel because of a stock market rally? :confused:
     
    #1297     Oct 27, 2004
  8. Oil was turning down to the 53s. Almost pegging EURUSD.

    GDP growth is in focus next - the oil prices were hurting possible growth and now we have to see if it has any immediate effect.
     
    #1298     Oct 27, 2004
  9. Crude oil's tanking...
     
    #1299     Oct 27, 2004
  10. Anyone favouring a bounce here ? Any thoughts ? :)

    Perhaps around 1.2715 ?


    edit: Thomson also cites the european closing hours as a factor. Then markets were beginning to stress a little with the oil data and the recent run-up, I guess.
     
    #1300     Oct 27, 2004