Yes it depends. If you hold stocks less than a year you pay short-term higher taxes. If you hold them longer than a year, you pay the lower long-term capital gains taxes. For futures, holding time doesn't matter you pay 60% long term + 40% short term taxes. Tax rules favor short term futures traders compared to stock traders.
In the Netherlands, you pay 1,2% over ALL your assets - ALL your debt, over 18k (box 3). BUT, if you are a daytrader, the dutch IRS can move you into box 1 (income from labour), this means you would pay a progressive tax rate, up to 51% :eek: But the thing is, the line between the two boxes is very vague. So with a few other activities, you could stay in box 3 (they would consider your capital management to be extra next to your 'main' income source).
I many times go for moves, extension that I know is just good for 4-10 ticks most. Part of my system is that I get into these "safe trades" for easy profits. Babysitting the position is something I have done before, but staying away from the T&S, orderbook is important .. watching Bloomberg once in a while is better when I do those position trades. I will try and find additional "rules" that will allow me of changing a good entry into a position, and then apply triggers, "conditional trailing" which locks in profits but still considers the same trade and larger objective. That way I can still do the intensive scalping, but get into some larger profit-hunting trades when I see a larger timeframe opportunity. I sometimes manage to do this in sharp markets with nice activity, scaling in, out ... I would have a hard time accepting 20-40 ticks against me, esp. because of leverage. My style is using quite a lot of leverage - which the EuroFX doesn't exactly lack. I think how you zoom in for entry-hunting is touching on similar element of how I would need to adapt. I would do it the other way around though .. zoom out and "letting profits run" when I get the pattern confirmation on the larger timeframe. I guess it's the same thing - as long as the larger timeframe decides the longer trade objective - the good entry I mostly got covered - short-term. If I'm not going to up size substantially I can't see myself doubling my fund base this year another time on FX without some serious work. It was a little easier with big size on ES, but the FX goblin is a nice little critter and I won't let it go. The best rule I have is not letting a winning trade turn into a losing one, and I would much prefer re-entry rather than risking a reversal. This involves a lot more babysitting though, but also a nice side-effect of continuing to update the analysis on the trade entry for the same objective. The trap are continous stop-outs if the larger timeframe analysis is "wrong", or markets won't "adhere". Also, many small profits would get into over trading - where profits would be deteriorating - albeit not at a rapid pace I would believe. I need to do some serious backtesting before I get into a position-system here, that's obvious. Will try and see if I can't improve on a "let profits run rule" with good exit strategy in the meantime - scaling down (because my leverage is too big). I made some ok scalps this morning after US equity open - 2x 12 ticks, so it's not like my style of trading doesn't work ... but for my goals I need bigger guns -- and moves. Nice market today. I think the "risk" is for a strong up move attempt. Thomson cited exotic barriers around 1.2455 ... Like I said earlier; a close over 1.2520 would be very, very good for the ⬠in my opinion. Many managers etc. say ⬠is at "fair value" right now according to Thomson www.ifrmarkets.com , but USD bias seems to be down still. FX Concepts said that a â¬-rise might last until wednesday, but I think that there are some concerns - also shared by Morgan Stanley and others where US is at the top of it's rise, while europe is at the bottom economically speaking; growth. Also, seeing the increasing pension crisis - the US has a very old population compared to the booming sixties. So, some of the growth benefits on the back that period will be very diificult to repeat. Oh, and where I used to pay taxes I would pay less than 30% on whatever investment capital gains - pro or not. Right now I pay very, very little taxes. edit: Thomson flattened out at 1.2507 from 1.2435 (I think it was), they said they would on the next failed 1.2540 run. They are looking for another long â¬$ position on a dip, but point out the risk that after 1.2540 there are no big resistance until 1.27 ... I think traders like to hear something like that, and several analysts have touted how they see corporate players entering the markets with a continued rising â¬. So this could get fun real fast.
I think that the trailing stop has a dilemma, where I can't get into the trailing stop before at least getting roughly my target price on trades. Now I've got a nice short entry above 1.2520 and I can let it ride a bit longer than the 1.2515-14 it's now. However with my perceived maximum of this trade - from the extreme top of the recent range - towards the perceived pretty safe minimum, I find that trying to extend the target downwards would be too risky - just giving up some ticks when it possibly bounces ... So one of the big difficulties I would have is to decide if I would wait and see if the range will be broken - which is many times very unlikely, or stay the scalping course. Well, it just goes to show that it's difficult to find longer term trades - much more difficult than the short-term scalps I do. The best thing I find is scaling out and then have a very, very tight stop. I guess I'm a little "lazy" too, I don't want to sit here watching the trade for many hours .. especially when very tired. I find that I have many similar entries to wizardtrader and his EuroFX journal; we obviously react to many of the same signals. However, I'm much more paranoid about letting the trade turn against me and get negative. He expects the trade to move positively immediately - which is pretty much how I trade too; but letting it turn negative while waiting for a much bigger target, trend to start is not something I can stomach. I guess Wizardtrader for practical purposes has a style which resembles a mix of mine and Chinook's style - looking for big intraday moves. I think that the entries are very important here - getting a "safe distance" early. Then I differ on how to handle the exit, and would prefer to exit,enter after re-evaluation and confirming that the trade is still possible. I do this lots of times. That way I think I still could get a larger move - AND avoiding the trade turning negative - unless a large and quick move gets underway - in which case the stop is prudent. I sometimes get out of the trade a little soon - but it's the exception rather than the norm - when considering the conditions for entering the trade - eyeing a range bounce, extensions etc. These are the easy trades I find. Jumping into a frenzy on a number's aftermath also is quite easy at times, just trying to get the larger trend in there and seeing the stalling and it's effects like I described earlier in another post (friday, I think). I have very few negative days, and I contribute this to the "nervous trading" that I operate. I also have no big drawdowns in FX trading, while I had some fairly big losses on ES trading some days. I used quite a bit heavier leverage on occasions on the ES, while the EuroFX seems much more risky with regards to big size. I guess I have adapted my style a little as well when transitioning to FX. The worst-case days are the over-trading days which I also have not had very many of on FX, although there were some stupid days in september with tight chops when using a 20-20 hindsight. Other days the trading frenzy got me out of trouble ... a negative day with perhaps 30 pips negative (I think it happened once), turned positive after I got back in there while it was still possible to perform a lot of quick trades. In general the over-trading days are exhausting and does not contribute to any well-being throughout the week, even if they are successful turn-around operations. I talked to Wizardtrader earlier, and he has a similar "normal limit" on trades like me - going for 2-6 trades per day. Any effort beyond that during RTH is normally not very productive. Another difference though is that I trade almost 24h (not normally continously trading - but sporadically), and get into various timezones. This might have to do with his trading environment - I don't know. I do think that securing profits when there are no very good additional entries is a very sae practice ... you avoid getting the "superman-feeling" jumping into your "next successful trade" immediately .. but rather nurture a "fear" of losing the hard-earned profits and not squandering it on a flimsy trade which you are not really that sure about. Such a daily cap on the number of trades helps to focus on this and sometimes enforce securing profits. He also mentioned that other traders with similar styles he knew had similar limits. All of the experiences of traders here do amount to something, and I've found many interesting new techniques and views - some which have helped me improve my trading. Of course, most I owe the IB FX thread which started me off with FX .. and now that I converted most of my USD profits into EUR I found that I had doubled my base on EuroFX. It's time to step up to the next level though, because I seldom slow down something I enjoy - just like driving ... Simulation of some positions with various scaling in, out and might be how I can find out how to get from where I am now and continue on my financial goal (outrageously high goal, BTW .. just for kicks). Being it as it is now, I'm well on my way .. and that makes it much easier to stick to my plan of how to get there. I have been doing some simulation on spot FX for largely "position trading", but the impact of actually having trades in the market is of course not part of this. Also, the EuroFX will continue to be my tool ... not spot FX -- although it probably is the way to go if I ever get closer to my financial goal. Earlier, I have reached every one of my financial goals .. but this one is going to take some time.
Same here, gonna take some time for me as well. I'm not too pleased with my performance lately... or shall I say system? I altered some things a little bit to be a bit more aggressive. I just have to trade it now and wait and see. It's interesting reading your posts. I have this personal bias against scalping... but you're not trading spotfx, where as I am. Seems like scalping is your type of style, and kudos on you for doing well. A problem that I've been having is that my profit/loss ratio isn't really that great. My type of style does risk quite a bit, and there are some drawdowns that you may not be comfortable with. I usually risk around 30-55 pips, and my profits are usually from 40-100. I really like the pound because its much more volatile than the euro. What I've been working on risks less and makes more. I was having problems with false signals, so I decided to wait for only specific patterns that are usually followed by large moves. My new system for the pound is being much more selective. I first have to figure out the money management part before I begin. Due to the way I trade, I take smaller positions. If you look at 1hr chart on either pair, you will notice that after a large move the price consolidates for a bit, then it will either continue or reverse. I like those situations best. Maybe that'll give you some ideas for position type trades?
The "risk for a strong up move attempt" I mentioned yesterday for the nice market has at least become a reality during the european open today. I wonder how long the corporate players will delay their jumping into the ring ... or are they already here ? Today I guess the US equity open 09:30 EST and then the european close, US lunch hours would be the best window of opportunity. Otherwise the high levels might provide more action during the "normal doldrums" after 11:30-12:00 EST. When I was trading stocks I had stocks for 3-4 years sometimes .. and also had 100,300,400% gains sometimes, but I also experienced 7-figure drawdowns so it's not like I haven't had experience with long-term investments. Trading futures I do like the good sleep the scalping style gives me, and the quick turnover, liquidity. Now I have a similar reluctance against long positions like you have against scalping. edit: I find "life over 1.26" quite unnerving, but Thomson are long since 1.2545 and have a 1.2710 target but will go flat on 1.2665 failure and have stop around 1.2525. I think they have some technical considerations which seems to do quite well. edit2: I would like to short from somewhere around 1.26 .. but the conflicting signals of stronger trending and pressure upwards gets in the way. Gotta watch for those really good opportunities.
Well, maybe oil numbers can give some input as well today. I trade very nervously today .. two shorts of 5 ticks each. I can't seem to sit very long with the lack of news right now - which I guess could indicate a very thin floor under here. No need to trade just for the heck of it right now. edit: Thomson mentioned a rumour of an eastern european central bank as a strong seller for the dip into 1.2285-ish area. Also, corporate hedging might have started to get some more traction, according to Thomson. edit2: Thomson reports stops at around 1.2550 and 1.2625 options barriers, also support around 1.2535. So better watch out if we get close to any of those. I stay clear of those as I don't like the risk, and prefer leveraged trades in the range in the meantime. the 1.2595-ish level is the most difficult and I don't take trade when close to that. I did make one earlier when we had a mini-bounce, but it was for those 5 ticks. Now it's in the middle of the range and getting stuck .. makes for no good scalp right now.
The muted reaction on the oil inventory numbers could perhaps indicate good opportunities to the downside over 1.26.
Another 6 tick short, but now we're pushing for 1.2625 barrier, stops ... After that a downturn would be pleasing. Thomson reports London Fixing to boost EURUSD, and US custiodial names adding to this -buying â¬s. UBS has 1.27 forecast in a months time, according to Bloomberg UK. European close might push this baby further uphill. Market makers, big wigs seem to take a lot of short futures .. but spot grinds upwards. I.e they absorb on the ask side.
I though I'd explain in detail how I set up a scalp. As I said I have a short bias above 1.26 - but of course look for upward moves. When we were coming to new highs I was looking quite carefully, and actually had a order waiting on 1.2618 ... But when prices went up and they stalled a little around the high - I noticed that the bid'ers weren't retreating like before - just 1-2 ticks and some big wigs were pushing (thick levels on the bid side). That made me very quickly realize that they took this stall and 1-2 tick reverse as a freebie. I therefore pulled the order and looked for higher highs which immediately came. When the stop-outs settled I saw a little push and decided 1.2624 would be a good entry because it would reverse soon, as this was what I call a extension of the range running stops etc. I got filled on 1.2624 and then it retreated a little, before pushing a few ticks higher .. as there was no follow-up I added to the short. Then the collapse started and I was thinking about roughly 10 ticks as a target, since it would fit nicely with the 1.2614-15 top of an earlier range and also there had been some significant trading there earlier. When we reached 1.2618-19 the stall on the way up and also the "top-range uncertainties" came in with another round of buyers, but seeing the momentum as still downwards I judged this as another "freebie" on the way down for the big wigs. Then we reached the 1.2616 level with much more stalling and I quickly got more nervous as the pace slowed down. I scaled out around this level, although it touched on 1.2614 once (2 contracts only I think it was). Just now it was best bid 1.2614 again after a brief mini-bounce. Well, just to explain how I do some of my scalps. Now we have a new range for a little while with the 1.2615 as the low and the low 1.2620s as the top. But just writing this takes some time, so I would wait a little for the next opportunity. alos I have to be careful and watch liquidity because we're now normally heading into daily doldrums - which I think could be a little dirfferent today with the signifcant push earlier in the european session start. I think it's quite evident how volume dropped after this last range extension and return. A tell-tale sign of taking it slow.