Just that it is speculation in the US press, and coincidentally large selling on tradesports.com against Bush's recent gains in poll. Also, if Kerry starts to mention a fading international support for the USD, then we'll know it's a "coordinated attack". Hilarious stuff. Probably some FUD'ers. (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt - a term coined with Microsoft and how they deal with competition)
I ended up not doing a single trade during the RTH; I got bored and went to the bank to make some transfers (which is 2 hours of paperwork etc). The 28-day national bank strike ended 2 business days ago, so now it's possible to use the banks here in Brazil again. Fair warning to anyone doing business here .. sometimes it's the banks, then it's federal customs police or it's street-police and so on ... But at least it's democratic right which seems to work well here. We seem to hold the 1.25, although the session was very tame - when studying charts and tape. I guess no trades during this US session was ok - although I only watched it for nearly three hours. Look forward to asian session after this .... or not.
Yup, mostly because of the inefficient bureaucracy here. It was the same when I was in Sao Paulo; I had to talk to the chief manager and explain to them how a VISA online transaction using a passport and VISA card worked. Roughly 90 minutes of elaborations, phone calls and "research" within the bank would produce the wanted result - this was at the biggest private bank agencies I could find in the Morumbi business district. Only Bradesco would do this, the other banks wouldn't draw a few hundred thousand reais from my account. Of course carrying that much cash is not exactly safe in Sao Paulo, but the ordeal of trying to explain to bankers how things work - even in the largest agencies is quite exhausting. Citibank and Bank of Boston would have done fine, IF they would attend people who don't have accounts with them (they would get the transaction fee and the sell spread on the currency conversion), and they have agencies at the world trade center there. Well, business is not that easy here - and it's mostly forbidden to transfer money out of the country if you're a foreigner as a private person ... you can transfer money IN TO Brazil from your other foreign accounts with no problem. Here're some rules at "the world's local bank HSBC": http://www.hsbc.com.br/wcm/pf/servc_pf/cambi_trans_pexte.html I don't have so much cash here, as I haven't dared to transfer any - and see no reason to - there are spying eyes and ears connected to syndicated crime everywhere. Then there are the stalinist transfer rules to boot. I have a house close to the beach and a SUV, and that's all I'm going to have here. The house has risen an extra ca 115% in value these last 2 years when considering currency fluctuations towards â¬, and the car is worth ca 40% more than 2 years ago - in â¬. First time I had a car grow on me like that. If I take the car to europe I will get much more than 40% on top of the buy price for it too. I was speculating in currency way back then - before doing any trading - but the presidential election here was a great help, as is the US election now.
Gringinho, What made you specifically go to Brazil and live there and not any other Latin American country?
I have relatives who have lived and worked here - although in the 60's - which doesn't exactly compare to today. I went here for the new year's celebration of 2000. I went back to europe on 1st of january 2000 .... I was working in IT and had all of the Y2K stuff to handle before ... so it was quite gutsy I thought. Besides, I had the best new year's celebration on St.Martin and sailing around the islands a few years back, so I wanted to go back there, but the other guys complained about the cost, so we went to Brazil instead. It was nicer where I am back in 1999, than now, but I'm outta here in some time. I had more business reasons back then, tax reasons etc. I was contemplating UAE, Anguilla and other tax havens but 9/11 and all the fallout changed a lot of plans. I'm on track now then, and have a nice living doing little - other than what's enjoyable. I retired before getting 30, then started trading pass-time and full-time when I felt it was worthwhile. So the main reason for going here the first time was partying ; pure and simple. Before that I had said I would never, ever go to Brazil - because of crime and the sad state of affairs for most public related affairs. It's a few years since I was in Rio de Janeiro, but now I avoid it like the plague - with the worst airport with the worst officials I've ever encountered, and a city which ranks on top 3 most dangerous cities in the world (with Bogota and Mexico City, I believe ... ok, maybe Baghdad and Kabul are not the safest places nowadays either after some help ... ).
It's one of the european ones ... I never was very happy about revealing to much of the easy-to-track information on semi-anonymous discussion boards, but anyone who knows me - would immediately know who was writing; it doesn't really matter either for the purposes of this board. I don't plan on living in my "vaterland" when returning to europe. I might even consider South Korea some day - which has some of the best tax-regimes of the OECD countries.
Gringinho, would you happen to know the tax laws for a trader in S. Korea? My CPA's brother is a daytrader in Korea, but never asked about it.
No, not really. I was researching capital gains tax a few years ago, and found that combined with cost of living, South Korea was very attractive. It was after I saw an article on OECD countries and taxes and cost of living. Best in europe, when combining these two factors, is Portugal. The cultural differences would be great moving to South Korea, but I trained ITF TaeKwon-Do for 11 years and had a teacher, master from that area. I also know a little korean - but mostly TKD-related. Otherwise, Anguilla is perhaps the best tax-friendly country on this planet.