Chinese Yuan is the best for long term right?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by AshanD, Aug 12, 2007.

  1. AshanD


    I am thinking of putting my money into real estate when I get out of college and I figure that the best place is a foreign market where the currency is strengthening against the USD. For the long term China looks the best right? Although I've heard the euro has been doing very well since it was introduced.
  2. If this is your only requirement, I think that every single currency will be strengthening against the USD in the next months, and maybe years.

    As for China, it is a high-risk investment. Many factors may compromise or at least significantly slow down the growth of chinese economy, in no order and non-exhaustively, here are a few: social unrest, energy crisis (oil price going up), impact of climate changes, deficiencies of economic structures, demographics problem, health problems, ... .
    And if you really consider real estate investment, keep in mind that many regions of china (including some large cities) are prone to natural disasters (floods, typhoons,...)
    Also, keep in mind that the longer is your long term, the more risk there is, so maybe you may want to consider a country where the unknowns are not as high as in China (for which you can look up a few books discussing in some depth the economic and social challenges this country is facing).

    Finally, a word about the Yuan, its movement against the USD is still carefully watched over and limited by the chinese government (they call it a managed floating system), its movement against it being officially limited to 0.5% daily (as from the end of May, before it was 0.3%), but effectively, it is believed to be much lower than that, and really at the discretion of the chinese central bank, which, I believe is a good thing for the economic development of China, but makes it a very uninteresting currency to trade with.