Any thoughts... Anyway to trade this... "China devaluation sparks fear of currency war, angers U.S. lawmakers" - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0QG04U20150811
It's probably the Chinese (also) not wanting the FED to cool our economy with a hike. The dollar has appreciated so much already. A yuan devaluation is playing dirty (or desperate which I don't believe). Very interesting is how today's news would have affected the Fed funds pricing of a rate hike. There had previously been a big move towards a higher probability. Unfortunately, the calculations are beyond me. Any website with real time probability calculation?
Higher probability of a smaller hike. The FED funds futures chart doesn't seem to imply any relevance. Thanks for the reminder.
that is highly contridicktory.. haha .. that cme group watch is derived from the sept expiration... right?
Yes. It is the September expiry. I am not sure what you find to be contradictory. What has me confused is why there is always a 100% probability of "a" rate hike. There should be a column for prob% of 0.00 rate hike. Perhaps, even a cut. I am not sure if it is a limitation in the calc (ie Fed Funds above 100)) or presentation format.
I don't know why its such a surprise this guy already predicted it and even reccomended a huge trade on the chinese devaluing its currency