Chinese devaluation

Discussion in 'Forex' started by cdcaveman, Aug 11, 2015.

  1. xandman

    xandman

    It's probably the Chinese (also) not wanting the FED to cool our economy with a hike. The dollar has appreciated so much already. A yuan devaluation is playing dirty (or desperate which I don't believe).

    Very interesting is how today's news would have affected the Fed funds pricing of a rate hike. There had previously been a big move towards a higher probability.

    Unfortunately, the calculations are beyond me. Any website with real time probability calculation?
     
    Sergio77 likes this.
  2. Are you looking at the fed funds futures for that
     
  3. aqtrader

    aqtrader

    China yuan is not freely traded. This is just a Chinese government manipulated event.
     
    Sergio77 likes this.
  4. xandman

    xandman

    upload_2015-8-11_19-46-14.png

    Higher probability of a smaller hike.

    The FED funds futures chart doesn't seem to imply any relevance. Thanks for the reminder.
     
  5. that is highly contridicktory.. haha .. that cme group watch is derived from the sept expiration... right?
     
  6. xandman

    xandman

    Yes. It is the September expiry. I am not sure what you find to be contradictory.

    What has me confused is why there is always a 100% probability of "a" rate hike. There should be a column for prob% of 0.00 rate hike. Perhaps, even a cut. I am not sure if it is a limitation in the calc (ie Fed Funds above 100)) or presentation format.
     
  7. dealmaker

    dealmaker

  8. I don't know why its such a surprise this guy already predicted it and even reccomended a huge trade on the chinese devaluing its currency
     
    rtiger29, Visaria, Chuck Krug and 3 others like this.
  9. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    And apparantly the Chinese are not done. Further devaluation tonight. Markets responding.
     
    #10     Aug 11, 2015