I wonder if there is a connection with this story and the recent US/Chinese naval "incidents" recently in the South China Sea. Jawboning and Military muscle flexing are not mere coincidences. Not saying that anything significant will come out of this in the immediate future - but interesting to note nonetheless. Destroyer to Protect Ship Near China http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...03/12/AR2009031203264.html?hpid=moreheadlines
so we are spying in South China. I suggst tit for tat, chinese surveillance ships should be sent to spy the west coast
I'm not striving for dramatic effect here, but does any, single person here doubt that both China and the U.S. are allocating their best and brightest people in their respective war gaming rooms towards the future occurrence of a Sino-American War as their primary focus? On this point, I don't think there's much doubt. I don't think that means that a war between us and China is inevitable, but the odds of it occurring with the passage of time certainly increase.
> There is not a single country in the world where the car industry is collapsing > as it is in the US or where housing is being hit that hard. Try Britain. Just about everything that's happened in the US has happened in Britain almost exactly the same way -- their domestic auto industry is in ruins, and pretty much everyone there who's bought a house within the past decade has either seen their equity vanish or is outright underwater right now.
You don't start wars with people that owe you $2 Trillion bucks and who support your entire economy by buying all the little dogshit trinkets that you produce. China will collapse along with its economy if we quit buying from them.
> I'm not striving for dramatic effect here, but does any, single person here doubt > that both China and the U.S. are allocating their best and brightest people > in their respective war gaming rooms towards the future occurrence of a > Sino-American War as their primary focus? Contemplating the possibility, probably. Actually expecting it to happen? No. Neither the US nor China want to see war, because it would be economically devastating to both countries. If you think $4.50/gallon gas was bad, imagine the impact an overnight general doubling of the price of nearly everything sold by Wal Mart would have on US consumers... or the effect an equally instant loss of both the US and EU as export markets would have on China's economy. I'm not even going to mention the effect skyrocketing prices for computer components would have on Microsoft and the rest of America's computer industry... I still remember what happened after the earthquake in Taiwan caused ram prices to double, double, then double again... and remain that way for years. Let's take the most obvious case -- Taiwan declaring independence from China. Wanna know what the US would do? Exactly what we've already assured China we would... scold Taiwan like a naughty child, firmly announce (via the UN) that they aren't being recognized as an independent country, maybe look the other way while the PLA sends a fighter jet or two to drop a couple of conventional bombs somewhere symbolic, but largely uninhabited within Taiwan, and let Taiwan know that if they don't retract the declaration, the US and EU will be imposing sanctions against them until they come to their senses. IMHO, the biggest risk from China is that it might do something shortsighted and stupid, like shoot missiles at somebody's satellites, and create enough space junk to render commercial satellites almost completely non-viable for the next thousand years. If any satellite in orbit had an 80% chance of being destroyed by a collision with space junk, it would pretty much be the end of satellites as general-purpose commercial communication devices. There would still be a few weather satellites, and a bunch of military satellites, but we could all kiss DirecTV, Dish Network, and Sirius goodbye.
I'm not so much worried about the war with China as...frankly how the hell would the US fund a war against the country that financially supports it. My concern is at what debt level does China start affecting US policy....ie if US decides to go and start a war in Iran but China doesn't want to support it so they can simply apply pressure by not buying treasuries to support the war.... Might not be an issue now but once we double the deficit in the next decade then what?
Or worse... the day China tries using us to fight proxy battles with India. Nothing overt, like bombing cities there or invading them, but things like forcing India to open its markets to Chinese products as a condition of access to American markets. I do, however, think China's efforts would end up being frustrated by the fact that India and the US are both highly functioning democratic republics. Not flawless, but close enough to it to ensure that in neither the US nor India is there any "they" in "the government" with whom to secretly force backroom deals with. Even if the highest-ranking leaders in Congress and the President, along with their equivalents in India, were on board with China, the moment any other officials caught the slightest whiff of strong-arming, the whole deal would go down in flames as everyone else jumped on the bandwagon to oppose it.