The Chinese built up many of their major cities with beautiful skyscrapers In the end it was only a jobs program as many of the buildings are empty and they have finished building most of the cities....time to pay the bills
Russia to hold sweeping joint war games with China, others The Russian military says it will launch sweeping military drills in the country’s east that will involve forces from China https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-hold-sweeping-joint-war-games-china-88992082
News analysis https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/business/soho-china-entrepreneurs.html Twilight of Entrepreneurs in China as More Leave the Country Two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, stepped down from their top jobs at the real estate development company they built. The Chinese entrepreneurs Pan Shiyi, left, and Zhang Xin quit this week as chairman and chief executive, respectively, of their real estate empire, Soho China.Credit...Visual China Group via Getty Images By Keith Bradsher Sept. 8, 2022 阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版 BEIJING — Wealthy and powerful entrepreneurs in China were once idolized by the public, doted on by the government and courted by foreign investors. They helped build the Chinese economy into a powerhouse, and with it became the global face of Chinese business in a freer era, amassing billion-dollar fortunes, buying mansions overseas and holding court at elite international gatherings. Now, billionaire tycoons are the outsiders in an increasingly state-driven economy that puts a priority on politics and national security over growth. As the government cracks down on business and the economy weakens, they are keeping low profiles, stepping down from their companies or leaving the country entirely. In the latest exodus, two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, resigned this week as chairman and chief executive, respectively, of their real estate empire, Soho China. Both had already moved to the United States early in the pandemic and tried to manage their business with late-night calls back to China. It has been a rough year for their company. A deal to sell a controlling stake to the Blackstone Group in New York fell apart when regulators failed to approve it. Soho China’s stock has lost more than half its value in the past year. “Hugely successful entrepreneurs of the early 21st century in general have to ask questions about whether it is in their best interest to stay in charge of their businesses and stay in China,” said Michael Szonyi, former director of the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University. “Clearly, the writing is on the wall for these company founders.” The husband-and-wife couple had personified the Chinese economy’s broader rags-to-riches rise. Mr. Pan was born to a poor family in Gansu Province, while Ms. Zhang labored as a teenager in a garment factory in Hong Kong. The Wangjing Soho development in Beijing, designed by Zaha Hadid, a famous architect who was a friend of Ms. Zhang’s.Credit...Nicolas Asfouri/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images They started their real estate business on Hainan Island in southernmost China, a place with a reputation even by China’s standards for having vertiginous booms and busts in apartment prices. They then quickly focused on China’s biggest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, where they built luxury apartment and retail complexes in some of the most expensive neighborhoods. Many real estate developers erected rectangular boxes with architectural palettes often limited to garish choices for the color of the glass and eccentric rooftops in poor mimicry of European manor houses. Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang instead brought in star architects from the West like Zaha Hadid, a friend of Ms. Zhang’s, and created buildings with curving, yet minimalist, facades. Their resignations underscore the growing concern among private entrepreneurs that China is veering away from the freewheeling capitalism that Deng Xiaoping and former Premier Zhu Rongji pioneered. Mr. Deng turned to entrepreneurs in the late 1970s to rebuild the economy after the devastation of Mao’s Cultural Revolution, and Mr. Zhu then led China into the World Trade Organization and toward its role as the world’s largest exporter. Xi Jinping, the country’s leader since 2012, has moved China instead toward a much more authoritarian, state-led society in which national security concerns increasingly take precedence over economic growth. Business leaders and human rights activists alike who dare to question Mr. Xi publicly have been jailed as China has tightened the reins on the private sector. Very wealthy entrepreneurs used to be “able to operate as they wished, as long as they did not step over certain political boundaries, but those boundaries were pretty loose even through the first term of Xi Jinping,” which ended in 2017, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese business and politics at the University of California San Diego. “All that changed. They are no longer such stars.” Jack Ma, a co-founder of Alibaba who went on to lead it to dominance in China’s e-commerce sector, has stepped down from the top jobs at the company. Colin Huang, founder of Pinduoduo, a rival to Alibaba, resigned as chairman early last year, less than a year after he stepped down as chief executive. A year ago, Zhang Yiming, founder of TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, said he would hand over the chief executive post to focus on long-term strategy. And as Shanghai went into a two-month lockdown in the spring as part of China’s “zero Covid” strategy, Zhou Hang, another prominent tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist, left the city for Vancouver, British Columbia, where he issued a strong denunciation of China’s current policies. President Xi Jinping has moved China toward a state-led society in which national security concerns take precedence over economic growth.Credit...Pool photo by Selim Chtayti Soho China’s troubles have been accumulating. The company disclosed on July 7 that the police were investigating its chief financial officer for possible insider trading in Soho’s shares. Over the past year Soho has also been repeatedly accused of overcharging tenants for electricity and fined nearly $30 million. The government’s efforts to rein in a housing bubble, together with frequent lockdowns of Chinese cities as part of the country’s stringent approach to the pandemic, have caused the entire real estate market to stumble — and the fortunes of Soho China along with it. Soho China disclosed that average occupancy at its investment properties in Beijing and Shanghai had fallen to 80 percent as of June 30. Soho China and Ms. Zhang, who frequently spoke for the company, did not respond to calls and text messages requesting comment. Two company executives who have each been with Soho for about two decades, Xu Jin and Qian Ting, were promoted to become co-chief executives, according to a filing on Wednesday with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. A private equity executive, Huang Jingsheng, was named nonexecutive chairman of the company. Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang will remain at Soho as executive directors, Soho China said in its filing, without specifying executive positions for them. Their resignations come as the Chinese Communist Party prepares to hold its national congress for the first time in five years, starting on Oct. 16. The congress is expected to give Mr. Xi a third five-year term in charge and possibly change the party’s charter to tighten further its grip on the country’s private sector. But China’s economy is in a tailspin, and tensions with the United States are high. That combination has made it harder for Mr. Xi to present himself to the congress as a successful leader. “Here he is, six weeks from a party congress, and things are tense, so this is exactly what he didn’t want,” said Barry Naughton, a professor at the University of California San Diego. The problems also make China a less attractive place for wealthy investors like Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang to keep their money, he noted. “What a good time for them to step down.” Jack Ma, who led Alibaba to dominance in China’s e-commerce sector, has stepped down from the top jobs at the company.Credit...Charles Platiau/Reuters For the past quarter century, Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang had profited from China’s rapid urbanization. When they started Soho China in 1995, the country had 352 million city dwellers — a number that had more than doubled by last year. For many Chinese, housing became their most important investment, accounting for two-thirds of household wealth. The couple catered to the most affluent of China’s elite with projects like Galaxy Soho and Wangjing Soho in Beijing and Sky Soho in Shanghai, all designed by Zaha Hadid Architects. These ambitious projects were emblematic of the central role in the Chinese economy that real estate had come to play, a sector that soon accounted for nearly a third of China’s entire economic activity. As Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang’s wealth soared, so did their prominence as the faces of a new generation of sophisticated, cosmopolitan Chinese business leaders. On his Weibo social media account, Mr. Pan drew more than 18 million followers, and for years he used his influence to call for changes like cleaner air in Chinese cities. Ms. Zhang, who earned a master’s degree in economics at Cambridge and worked at Goldman Sachs early in her career, became a sought-after speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The couple’s penthouse duplex in Beijing became one of China’s most fashionable salons for dinner parties that drew intellectuals, artists and government leaders from around the country and across the world. But China’s entrepreneurs have come under pressure as Mr. Xi has pursued his “common prosperity” campaign for businesses and tycoons to share more wealth with their countrymen to ease inequality. Mr. Xi has asserted the Communist Party’s control over the private sector, demanding political loyalty from companies and businesspeople. Ren Zhiqiang, another wealthy real estate developer and a friend of Mr. Pan’s, was sentenced to 18 years in prison after he criticized Mr. Xi. Some entrepreneurs have been silenced on social media. While Mr. Pan’s and Ms. Zhang’s Weibo accounts are still active, they have been posting infrequently and sticking to mundane, bland topics. “This is part of the evolution of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting research scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly incompatible with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.” Li You contributed research. Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He was part of a team that won a Pulitzer in 2013 for its coverage of Apple, and he was a Pulitzer finalist in 1998 for his coverage of the dangers of sport utility vehicles. @KeithBradsher
Economy|Technology China’s great leap forward in chips faces US pushback Beijing’s efforts to secure dominance over critical chips are facing growing resistance from Washington. China's efforts to develop its semiconductor industry are facing resistance from the United States [File: Florence Lo/Reuters] By Liam Gibson Published 9 Sep 2022 https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/9/9/china-great-leap-forward-in-chips-faces-us-pushback Taipei, Taiwan – China is facing a steeper climb to overtake the United States and its allies in semiconductors as Washington ramps up measures to restrict Beijing’s ability to produce advanced chips and secure dominance over the strategic technology. Last week, Washington restricted the sale to China of select Nvidia and AMD advanced graphic processor units (GPUs) used in artificial intelligence applications and supercomputers. The move followed the US Commerce Department’s announcement last month of a ban on exports to China of electronic design automation (EDA) software used in the production of next-generation chips. Meanwhile, Washington has been nudging East Asian partners Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to form a “Chip 4” industry alliance to isolate China from the international tech ecosystem, and bolstered efforts to develop its homegrown industry with the passage of the CHIPS Act, offering $52bn in subsidies to firms that make chips on US soil. “The US is trying to reinforce its central role in the world’s semiconductor ecosystem and ensure that China is unable to produce the most cutting edge chips,” Chris Miller, author of the upcoming book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, told Al Jazeera. “Control over semiconductors will not only shape the future of the world economy, from cloud computing to autonomous driving, they are also fundamental to military power.” Semiconductors have emerged as one of the fiercest battlegrounds in the intense rivalry between the US and China. Beyond functioning as the lifeblood of the modern economy, powering everything from iPhones to fighter jets, the chips are seen as critical to unlocking the technological breakthroughs of the future, meaning tomorrow’s global balance of power could rest on the wafer-thin chips being developed today. China, like other major economies, relies heavily on semiconductor production in Taiwan, the source of more than 90 percent of the global supply of high-end chips, but has recently made considerable strides in developing its domestic industry. In July, researchers at TechInsights reported that China’s national champion Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) had likely acquired the ability to produce a 7-nanometre (nm) chip, signalling a big leap forward after years of struggling to advance beyond a 14nm node. Semiconductors are typically compared by the length of their transistor gates, with a smaller gate generally corresponding with greater processing power. Beijing-backed SMIC is now ramping up foundry capacity, with new plans for a fourth plant in the northern city Tianjin. SMIC did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment. China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is believed to have acquired the ability to produce a 7nm semiconductor [File: Aly Song/Reuters] “It’s a massive breakthrough,” Dylan Patel, an industry analyst and author of the newsletter SemiAnalysis, told Al Jazeera. “It’s missing some features, but it’s a fully functional node.” “This is the first real sign they’ve broken through a supposedly insurmountable barrier. Now they need to incrementally improve the design and scale up the production to higher value chips.” China has been blocked from acquiring the latest equipment for producing advanced chips — extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — since leading Dutch manufacturer ASML was denied an export licence following US pressure on Amsterdam. But Chinese firms can still use less efficient deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, which feature larger beam wavelengths typically used to etch patterns on less-advanced chips, to make high-end semiconductors. Although Washington has flagged plans to expand its ban on chip-making equipment, China has been stocking up on ASML’s DUV lithography machines, buying up 81 machines last year alone. “SMIC can fabricate a 7nm process with DUV, perhaps producing it en masse, but that does not make it cost-effective,” Ray Yang, a consulting director at Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute, told Al Jazeera. “With DUV resolution, but you are pushing the technology to its limits,” Yang said, likening it to driving a consumer car at Formula 1 speeds. “The yield rate is very low, therefore, it is not a cost-optimised solution for advanced processors and anything beyond 7nm is simply impossible.” Yang said that SMIC could afford to use less profitable processes to produce advanced chips due to its state backing. “Now that Huawei cannot use foreign foundries, China is heavily relying on SMIC for chips it urgently needs, likely for ‘special non-commercial uses,'” he said. China’s intended uses for high-end chips include advanced weaponry for its military [File: Damir Sagolj/Reuters] Those non-commercial uses include advanced weaponry for China’s growing military. The links between Huawei, one of China’s biggest tech giants, and the Chinese military have been a longstanding concern for Washington, culminating in the Trump administration adding the company to the “Entity List” of sanctioned firms in 2019. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, leveraging private sector tech breakthroughs to bolster China’s defence sector has become a national priority, with its Military-Civil Fusion Strategy becoming a pillar of industrial policy. “Chips are crucial for smart weapons. This is one of the reasons many policymakers are so concerned about the development of China’s semiconductor industry,” Douglas Fuller, an expert in technological development at the City University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera. Although China is believed to still lack the technology to produce chips under 7nm, firms such as SMIC and Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co are racing to develop their own indigenous machines to break the impasse. “SMIC engineers have leaked complaints that those machines are prone to problems. China has not yet made a well-functioning ArF lithography machine,” Patel said, referring to a sub-type of DUV lithography machine. “China is years behind in making chips with foreign tools, but decades behind with domestically-made tools.” Chinese tech giant Alibaba last year unveiled a design for a 5nm server chip intended for use in a range of internet-of-things (IoT) applications [File: Thomas Peter/Reuters] Chinese firms can also continue to design chips smaller than 7nm, even if they cannot necessarily produce them yet. Last year, Alibaba unveiled one of China’s most advanced designs, the Yitian 710 — a 5nm server chip built for a range of internet-of-things (IoT) applications. Even so, Washington’s latest restrictions are set to make the design phase for next-generation chips — those under 5nm — harder, too. The next-gen chips are expected to rely on the emerging gate-all-around (GAA) design, which is widely considered a solution to the physical limitations of shrinking chips to infinitesimally smaller sizes. “The ban impacts China’s pipeline today, but won’t hit their products and revenue for years to come since GAA will only be for 2nm nodes and under, which haven’t arrived yet,” said Patel, adding that 2nm nodes could make up half the output of the world’s leading chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), in the coming decades. “It will be hard [for China] to sidestep these EDA suppliers,” Patel said. “However, Cadence [a leading American EDA supplier] has joint ventures in China, and offers its design programs at a discount in China compared to US customers. So China could have some leverage over the firm there and exert pressure on them.” Yang said China would do all it could to procure necessary lithography equipment if it was prevented from purchasing it on the open market. “This could entail reverse engineering, IP theft, or strategically acquiring foreign firms … which has happened many times in the past with other critical technologies,” he said. China is also seeking breakthroughs by pouring resources into alternative materials to silicon, such as carbon. Beijing has included research on carbon fibre, graphene, silicon carbide, and other carbon-based composites in its 14th Five-Year Plan. “It’s a potential tech of the future, but it has yet to be proven at scale,” Patel said. “You can make a super fast chip in a lab at crazy clock speeds, but making it on an economically feasible model is a whole other story.” “If it does turn out to be a technology of the future, China is marginally closer to the forefront. The gap it needs to close is comparatively smaller.” Source: Al Jazeera
Trade In swipe at China, EU moves to ban goods made using forced labor Beijing likely to react angrily to 'protectionist' measures A cotton harvester works in the field in Hami in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on Oct. 9, 2020. Europe is proposing a ban on all goods made using forced labor, in light of alleged force labor practices in the Chinese region. (Source photos by AP) CATHERINE DE BEAUREPAIRE, Nikkei staff writer September 14, 2022 https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Tra...EU-moves-to-ban-goods-made-using-forced-labor BRUSSELS -- Driven by concerns about the human rights situation in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, the European Commission on Wednesday proposed a ban on all goods made using forced labor. The proposed legislation states that the prohibition "should apply to products for which forced labor has been used at any stage of their production, manufacture, harvest and extraction, including working or processing related to the products." The European Parliament and European Union member states will now discuss the proposal, which would come into force two years after being enacted. Some lawmakers in the parliament do not believe it goes far enough and are calling for a sweeping ban similar to one recently imposed by the U.S. Beijing is also likely to react angrily, having spoken out last week against what it considers "protectionist" measures. A recent United Nations human rights report called on China to investigate "allegations of torture, sexual violence, ill-treatment, forced medical treatment, as well as forced labor and reports of deaths in custody." Beijing's rebuttal said that "the lawful rights and interests of workers of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang are protected, and there is no such thing as 'forced labor.'" Xinjiang is a major cotton producer and also supplies much of the world's materials for solar panels. The U.S. has already effectively banned the import of goods from the Chinese region last year with the passage of the Uighur Forced Labor Prevention Act, a stricter measure than the EU proposal as it presumes all goods from Xinjiang are made with forced labor. The European Commission's proposal does not specifically mention any region or country of origin. If it had done so, it could have faced challenges by countries at the World Trade Organization. Michelle Bachelet, the former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, attends her final news conference in Geneva on Aug. 25. © Reuters The legislation would put the onus on national authorities in Europe to prove that forced labor is involved in the making or processing of products. They will have to carry out investigations, focusing on manufacturers and companies in sectors and regions where forced labor is most likely to occur. If a substantiated potential violation is found within 30 days of a preliminary investigation, authorities would proceed with a second probe on the items and companies suspected of employing forced labor. Companies would be required to provide information on the products under investigation and their suppliers. Customs authorities would have to suspend the circulation of the goods while investigations are carried out. Goods found to be tainted by forced labor by one national authority would then be seized and withdrawn from the whole EU market unless companies can prove they have eliminated the practice from their supply chains. Moreover, EU countries would have to introduce "effective, proportionate and dissuasive" penalties in case companies continue to place such products on the market. While smaller companies are included within the scope of the draft law, enforcement is likely to focus on large companies because they are the ones likely to have the largest impact.
This to show a different, opposite perspective.... Putin’s quagmire strengthens Xi’s Eurasian masterplan https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-...hens-xi-s-eurasian-masterplan-20220915-p5bi8u China wants economic dominance and security along its long land-locked borders. Russia will never concede this but is in no shape to contest it. Geoff Raby Columnist Sep 16, 2022 It seems as if it has taken Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for much of the West to start to recognise that the world order has changed, and changed some time ago. Putin’s invasion was also possible because the order had changed already, and the US unipolar moment had long passed. The invasion itself is part of the new, potentially terrifying, multipolar order. Xi and Putin pose for a photo at the Samarkand summit on Thursday. AP During his visit to the Uzbek city of Samarkand, President Xi Jinping is likely to have visited the magnificent, blue-tiled mausoleum of Timur (Tamerlane), the 14th century Turkic-Mongol emperor of Persia, Afghanistan and Central Asia, and the Bibi-Khanyam mosque, the 15th century masterpiece of the Timurid Renaissance. These are just two of the unmissable sites on any visit to Samarkand. Xi is a keen student of history. Inevitably, against the background of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most attention will be drawn to this aspect of his meeting with Vladimir Putin. But Xi’s visit to Samarkand at a time when China is still suffering rolling lockdowns of major cities to control COVID has far greater significance than discussions with Putin over Ukraine. Uppermost in Xi’s mind will be Tamerlane and the pan-central Asian empire he founded. The four ‘observer’ states The China initiated and led Shanghai Co-operation Organisation has been a key element in China’s efforts to build a parallel international order to that of the US led order. Formed initially in 2001 with Russia and four Central Asia states, it aimed to check growing US influence in Central Asia. For China, this task became more urgent after the US and NATO’s invasion of Afghanistan in 2003. It has now grown to include eight states – China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Four ‘observer’ states are seeking full membership – Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia. Iran has started the process to become a full member. Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have applied to become observer states. In a historical irony that was clearly meant to send a cheeky message, the SCO’s Beijing headquarters now occupies the former Japanese Embassy. The SCO’s member-state flags are raised next to the St Regis hotel, favoured by US visiting Secretaries of State and other senior US officials, just around the corner from the US Ambassador’s official residence. The SCO’s principal justification in its early days was central Asian security against Islamic fundamentalism. This remains of great importance, but its mission has extended more widely to include massive joint military exercises across Central Asia, disaster relief co-operation, and co-ordination on regional issues such as energy security. At heart, its unifying theme is that it stands against the US-led Western democracies. Mutual suspicion between these great Eurasian powers is enduring. India recently joined despite its flirtation with the Quad and its border conflicts with China in the high Himalaya. Its membership is a reminder that Australia’s hopes to draw India in to balancing China in our interests are naive wishful thinking. Modi like Xi will sit down with Putin in Samarkand but will not be carrying the West’s brief into those talks. He is there to look after India’s interests, in part by strengthening an anti-western bloc. Silence in Australia about India’s active participation in China-initiated and led bodies such as the SCO and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and minimal attention paid to India’s position on Ukraine, which is closely aligned with China’s, further underscores the ideological nature of so much that passes as strategic thinking in Australia. These are also blank spaces on Australia’s diplomatic map – no professional knowledge and no diplomatic missions. Creating alternatives to US order As demonstrated in my book, China’s Grand Strategy, Beijing has for 20 years been steadily and deliberately building multilateral architecture to give institutional substance to its economic reach. The response of the West, and Australia in particular, has been to ignore it or, as in the case of the AIIB and BRI, for the US to oppose it and try to encourage others to join its opposition. China has demonstrated considerable institution-building entrepreneurship. It also initiated the BRICs grouping, created the New Development Bank and, of course, Xi’s signature project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), to which the US has firmly closed Australia’s mind. In this respect, China’s statecraft has been skilful. The purpose of all this activity is to create alternatives to the US dominated order. With the weight and size of the Chinese economy and its reach into every corner of the world, the international order now can best be thought of as comprising two bounded orders. The arch foreign policy realist John Mearsheimer coined the concept bounded orders, where a dominant power exercised influence over many states by virtue of deep economic interdependencies and institutional innovation to reflect common concerns and objectives. China is now the dominant power across all Central Asia, and arguably Eurasia. Huawei, banned from Australia’s 5G network, is the digital backbone across Eurasia from Beijing to Warsaw. China is becoming the biggest market for the region’s vast supplies of energy and natural resources. Under the BRI, it is the single biggest source of foreign investment in infrastructure which Eurasia badly needs. China is the leading trading partner for all these states. Putin came to Samarkand much weakened by his invasion of Ukraine. He has united the West against him in ways which few would have predicted before February this year. He has now squandered blood and treasure on objectives that seem ever out of reach. Reports from Ukraine that parts of his forces are in retreat will weaken him further. China has been strengthened in one of its most important objectives by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s longer term strategic objective is unrivalled dominance in Central Asia. Only then will it feel secure along its long landlocked borders. Russia won’t readily, if ever, concede this but Putin is no shape to contest it. Mutual suspicion between these great Eurasian powers is enduring. Discussions in Samarkand will politely avoid acknowledging this strategic elephant in the room. Surrounded by the stupendous beauty and achievements of the Tamerlane era, both leaders will be carefully considering their places in history.