True but that has been changing as well. Communists, those with the income, like to eat like us Westerners. And have always loved to smoke, smoke, smoke. They play with their stats like with Covid. Millions and millions died, yet not according to the gubmint published figures.
Foxconn is replaceable but not TSM and ASML at the moment. Apple couldn't do a thing if not for these two. I lost 5 figures in GTAT back in 2014. Apple loaned them 400 million for this glass comany. Obviously there was the case of intel modem, Apple bought it eventually but still subpar. I sold all Apple in 175ish back in May and don't plan to buy back anytime soon. Apple recent Mac and iPhone sales were dismal. And still no foldables, keeping my iphone 13 until then.
LOL one of the greatest stock market runs ever. Who pays you to MSU like this? Maybe you are right they are toast. Seriously doubt it though. Remember the topic China's 40 year boom. Not TSM or ASML.
protecting the downside risks, either diversify or co-locate, money doesn't grow on trees. 40 years run to number 2, wasn't bad in any measures, good for them. Real estate debt is the easiest thing to fix, so long they are running short on food and energy.
$SPX (blue) vs SSE (red) year to date:- Its not like I plotted China in red like red ink and that index is negative for the year. Red is a lucky color there.
To say China's real estate problems are going to be easy to fix is absurd. The scale of what they have done is just awesome. We are in uncharted territory with no equivalent to compare them to. There is no mystery with what happens here. Problems get swept under the rug until something implodes. That can could get kicked down the road another 10-20 years though. That is why I have got long the Hang Seng the last month. The sentiment on the Chinese economy is so negative that a lot of downside risk is priced in here unless there is a total economic meltdown and they have the tools to cause that to not happen. I just finished the book Chinese Leaders: Mao To Now. Really great book with a chapter on each leader of China from Mao to Xi. What is easy to forget with China is just how recent this whole economic experiment they have been doing is. The systemic problem they have though is there is no mechanism for economic correction so economic problems accumulate and those are all pooling into real estate. What also stands out in that book is there is only 6 chapters. We see how US leaders will do what they have to in order to delay economic days of reckoning and kick it down the road. That is even more so in the Chinese system since it is just so much newer. Real estate collapse is going to be a leaders main chapter theme in that book at some point in the future. The day of reckoning is not going to happen under Xi. Have to assume part of the fix here is to build more infrastructure.
. they have home ownership nearly 90%, much more than 65% we have here. also they don’t trust the stock market hence all the savings they plowed into housing in the first place and bank deposits second. pboc have 1.8 trillion yuan extra savings during the pandemic. the homeowners can pay down their mortgages right quick. we live in an echo chamber, the news we read are about those large private developers couldn’t pay their bond holders, and we are showed those ghost cities and unfinished building blocks. but we never talk about those well capitalized developers who are also building infrastructure projects such as schools, hospitals, roads, factories, solar farms, in addition to housing. In short term solution is to remove the senior management of these developers, let the companies go bankrupt, deliver unfinished buildings, pay off the contractors and workers. good location housings will be bought, bad location housings will be abandoned and written off. folks who put down deposits can be offered a new location or a refund. but the reality is that real estate sector is not going away, nor it will collapse the economy. in a longer term, some sort of property tax regime can be introduced but being a communist country, taxations on personal properties are not a good start. ccp got to solve this because they own it, the party will override the market.
HSI is a good call but being a US person you can't buy 2833 in IBKR since Trump's ban. I suppose EWH works. ASHR and KWEB are only ETFs I track since.