The ultimate option will be to genetically engineer your citizens for full compliance and complacency. Personality traits to genetically dispositioned as well. Whatever it takes to make better meat for the system. Free will was a thing of the past. Follow up up on the doctor who got in trouble for the two girls he made...wonder how their are doing now. The competitive edge must be maintained regardless of ethical standards. Akuma
https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Is-Beijing-Losing-Control-Of-Its-Economy.html Is Beijing Losing Control Of Its Economy? By Metal Miner - Aug 29, 2023, 10:00 AM CDT China's attempts to stimulate its economy through various measures have not been successful, leading to concerns about deflation and impact on metal prices. Weak consumer confidence and a struggling property sector are adding to the economic woes, causing imports to decrease and affecting domestic demand. Despite these challenges, the article suggests that the slowdown is cyclical and won't necessarily lead to the end of China's economic growth or a collapse in commodity prices. Via Metal Miner Many speculate that China’s slowdown will not only undermine metal prices but also put China at risk of experiencing a Japan-style decade of deflation. A recent Financial Times article suggests that China has tried various measures to stimulate economic growth. Examples include cutting lending rates, mortgage rates, business taxes, stock-trading fees, and admission costs at tourist sites. That said, these efforts, including extended EV subsidies, relaxed regulations, Forex market interventions, and extended stock trading hours, all started after the COVID lockdowns. Meanwhile, the Economist recently indicated that the property sector continues to weigh heavily on the Chinese economy. When Country Garden, a major player in the industry, missed a debt payment this month, it only served to highlight the ongoing severity of the property sector’s issues. Declining Imports and Weak Demand Could Affect Metal Prices China’s imports also continue to soften. For instance, aluminum imports dropped significantly due to weak demand and increased domestic smelter production after water restrictions ended in Yunnan. According to Bloomberg, oil prices have lost support, with crude imports falling in Q3 and oil storage levels reaching record highs this year. In fact, current estimates put storage levels at roughly three times that of the U.S. strategic reserve. This suggests that the strong first-half imports were more for replenishing inventory than domestic consumption. The availability of cheap Russian oil and aluminum also likely played a role. Still, with subdued demand and sufficient domestic production / inventory, imports continue to decrease. Weak consumer confidence also continues to contribute to lower domestic demand. Beijing acknowledges this and thus avoids direct stimulus measures like tax cuts or payments. This is because Chinese consumers would likely save any surplus funds, blunting the impact of such actions. According to the FT, consumers lack confidence in the economy, especially the property sector, due to the post-pandemic situation. This continues to lead to reduced overall spending. While this situation could persist for months or even years, it won’t necessarily signal the end of Chinese growth or a collapse in commodity prices, as some fear. A 5% annual growth in China now equals the consumption increase of a 10% growth a decade ago when the economy was smaller. Property Market Woes The property market remains a major hindrance to the economy. According to Reuters, this is further compounded by Beijing’s gradual undermining of the private sector. Indeed, construction plays a crucial role in China’s growth, making up over 30% of demand. However, the less-discussed factor is Beijing’s suppression of the private sector. Yes, President Xi’s administration continues to favor the state sector despite the private sector contributing 80% of urban employment and 60% of GDP. Xu Chenggang from Stanford University’s Centre on China’s Economy and Institutions notes that the Chinese Communist Party fears a strong private economy could threaten its hold on power. As a result, they pass laws to hinder its expansion, which could further impact metal prices. Is Recovery Possible? The primary conclusion is that China is undergoing a cyclical downturn. Global growth slowdowns continue to dampen exports. Meanwhile, the property sector’s woes continue to impact confidence. This could potentially lead to civil unrest if not managed effectively. Of course, China’s increasing isolation from the West also hampers inward investment. Will growth improve? Not this year. Perhaps next. Either way, it’s doubtful the country will reach the levels of growth seen over the past decade. With the property sector’s long-term decline as an engine of growth, the economy will still grow but resemble a mature one. By Stuart Burns
Absolutely correct. They are already in the re-ruralfication process. Mistakes made by the West ie. (Service Economy Platforms) have been observed and more than likely will be avoided by China. Humanity is due for another technological paradigm shift/game changer//disruptor. With the 2024 election cycle underway it would be an opportune time for another nation state to capitalize on the timeframe due to the distraction it causes in the "Colonies". Other noteworthy report of activity at a D.O.D. level have shown a light on the unconventional methodologies employeed be "Gate Crashers" to beat around the bush and become aware of the reaction that the system and personel take when a military base is being broken into. Akuma 6GW (6th Generation Warfare) is already upon us...
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/opinions/rising-superpower-myth-china-rayburn-bergen/index.html Opinion: The ‘rising superpower’ myth about China
China property woes deepen as a big developer suspends debt payments By Michelle Toh, CNN Published 3:10 AM EDT, Fri September 15, 2023 Country Garden avoids default for now 03:47 - Source: CNN Editor’s Note: Sign up for CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter which explores what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Hong KongCNN — A major Chinese property company has suspended offshore debt payments, deepening turmoil in the beleaguered sector. Sino Ocean, which says it’s one of the nation’s top 20 real estate developers, said in a stock exchange filing Friday that it would temporarily stop making payments on US dollar-denominated bonds, and suspend trading of them, as it embarked on a wider debt restructuring. The company said it made the decision as it faces “mounting liquidity pressures” due to a sales slump across the wider industry since 2021, which has hampered its ability to repay its debts. So far this year, “the group has experienced a rapid decline in contracted sales and increased uncertainty in asset disposals,” it noted. “The group respectfully requests that creditors allow the group some time to resolve the current liquidity issue and work with its advisers to formulate a plan.” Sino Ocean, which is based in Beijing, focuses on residential and commercial development, and has some 600 projects across more than 80 cities in China, including high-end office buildings and shopping malls. China's biggest homebuilder just dodged default. It faces a rocky road ahead The developer and its financial and legal advisers, Houlihan Loukey and Sidley Austin, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on how long the restructuring process might take, whether its onshore debt payments would be affected and what legal implications it may face. Shares of Sino Ocean plunged 10.6% in Hong Kong on Friday following the announcement, to just 59 Hong Kong cents (about 8 US cents). As of June, the company’s total current liabilities, or debt coming due within a year, had reached nearly 60 billion yuan (approximately $8.4 billion), according to its interim annual report. News of its troubles adds to greater concerns over China’s property sector, which have come to the fore in recent weeks as Country Garden, the nation’s largest homebuilder last year, flirts with the possibility of default. Last month, the developer also suspended trading of some of its bonds, citing a need to consider restructuring its debt. Enter your email to subscribe to the CNN Five Things Newsletter. privacy policy. On Friday, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed property investment in China fell 8.8% in the first eight months of the year, compared to the same period a year ago. Property sales by floor area dropped 7.1% in the January to August months, compared to the first eight months of 2022. On Thursday, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for the overall sector, citing a downturn in residential sales and continued jitters about the health of the industry. China's economic data improves in August, suggesting downturn in growth may be stabilizing In June and July, nationwide property sales fell around 20% compared to the same period a year before, it said in a report. This reversed “the 11.9% growth for the first five months, reflecting renewed weakness in residential property,” the agency added. “Lower-tier cities, particularly in weak economic regions, will bear the brunt of the expected sales decline amid continuing population outflow, while demand in [major] cities will be more resilient.” Moody’s also downgraded the holdings of another Chinese real estate developer, China SCE Group, to junk on Thursday, saying it also had “sizable” debt and cash flow problems. The group’s ratings have been bumped down from B3 to Caa1. — CNN’s Juliana Liu contributed to this report.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/18/economy/china-evergrande-staff-detained-debt-intl-hnk/index.html Evergrande’s woes deepen after police detain staff at its shadow bank
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/22/opinions/china-xi-missing-ministers-ghitis/index.html Opinion: It doesn’t take an Agatha Christie detective to work out something’s up in Xi’s China
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/05/economy/china-youth-resignation-parties-intl-hnk/index.html Why China’s young people are quitting their jobs and throwing ‘resignation parties’
People who predict China's demise overlooked several important factors: 1. It is a net creditor nation, its net debts are owned by itself. So in the end it just has to make some adjustments on who owns what, some transfer of wealth will be necessary to right the ship but won't sink the ship. 2. It is borrowing a playbook of past colonial powers: Using its economic power and net creditor status to "invade", i.e., fund projects in Africa, South America and Asia thus benefiting its own companies and people, creating future growth for its economy. Like investment in its own infrastructure, it will take time to bear fruits. 3. A dictatorship does have its advantage. The dictator, if willing, can make changes with lighting speed which a democratic government like the US simply cannot. If it wants to the government can implement internal "debt/wealth" transfers easier than anywhere in the US/Europe.
Dozens of Chinese property companies have defaulted on their bonds over the last two years, but only a handful have paid investors back any money. BLOOMBERG NEWS By Frances Yoon and Rebecca Feng Updated Oct. 17, 2023 12:06 am ET China’s property market meltdown created a multibillion-dollar opportunity for distressed-debt investors. It hasn’t paid off. The country’s real-estate sector is reeling from a yearslong slowdown that has put strains on the economy, sparked widespread protests and triggered defaults on around $81 billion of Chinese developers’ international bonds between 2021 and 2022, according to figures from S&P Global Ratings. The wave of defaults in the sector proved irresistible to many distressed-debt funds. These funds buy the bonds or loans of struggling companies, often at a price well below face value, and negotiate with the companies to work out a debt restructuring plan. They flooded into the market two years ago, including buying many of the outstanding bonds of developers But the distressed-debt playbook isn’t working in China. Dozens of Chinese property companies have defaulted on their bonds over the last two years, but only a handful have paid investors back any money. Last month, Evergrande abandoned a $35 billion debt restructuring plan that it had finally agreed with some of its investors after protracted negotiations. China Aoyuan still hasn’t completed a deal more than 18 months after it defaulted. Most dollar bonds sold by Chinese property companies are trading below 10 cents on the dollar, and several are trading at less than 5 cents, according to research firm CreditSights. “The market is showing all the signs that it’s lost patience,” said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets fixed income at BNP Asset Management. “When you see these bonds now trading below 10 cents on the dollar, it tells you that investors expect a very low recovery, or total liquidation in some cases.” Investors holding defaulted bonds have historically got back more than 30 cents on the dollar, according to global figures from Moody’s Investors Service, a credit ratings company. An aerial photo shows a residential area of Evergrande in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu province. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS Investment firms including Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich, SC Lowy in Hong Kong and New York-based Apollo Global Management bought Evergrande’s bonds in late 2021. At the time, one of its most actively traded bonds was worth around 20 cents on the dollar. The same bond is now trading at around 2.5 cents on the dollar. Vontobel has closed its position in Evergrande, said a spokesperson. SC Lowy sold most of the Chinese property bonds it held last year, according to Michel Lowy, its co-founder and chief executive. Apollo didn’t respond to a request for comment. A prolonged slowdown in the property sector is making it difficult for companies to estimate the cash flows they will need to pay investors back in the future. In September, sales at China’s 100 largest developers were down almost 30% from last year, according to data provider China Real Estate Information Corp. A worker stands outside the construction site of an office building owned by Aoyuan Group in Hong Kong. PHOTO: LAM YIK/REUTERS Shimao Group, a Shanghai-based developer, recently changed the terms of a planned debt restructuring, asking investors to accept a lower recovery rate because of the weak property market, according to a person familiar with the matter. Last week, the company said its contracted sales fell three-quarters in September from the same month last year. “Given the uncertainty and state of the property sales, I’m not sure anyone can figure out what a sustainable business model looks like, which is why it’s taking so long,” said Diwakar Vijayvergia, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein . “It’s going to be a time-consuming process.” Distressed-debt investors are also finding negotiations complicated by China’s government, which is attempting to avoid further economic damage from the property market slump. The country’s economy has struggled this year. Exports are down, consumer demand is sluggish, and inflation is nonexistent. European and U.S. distressed-debt investors who bought Evergrande’s bonds after the company defaulted were hoping for a “rational, market-driven” restructuring, said Kenny Chung, portfolio manager of fixed-income focused hedge fund Astera Capital. “Now they’ve realized that the restructuring of a company that is the scale of Evergrande will be overseen by the government and will depend on the government’s future design for the firm,” Chung said. Residential buildings under construction at the Honor of China project, originally developed by defaulted Shimao Group. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS Sunac China , a large developer that defaulted last May, received court approval for a restructuring plan it wants to complete this month, and investors point to it as an example that deals are possible. Sunac’s dollar bonds have risen several points in the past weeks, although they are still trading at around 15 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb. Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management, said that distressed-debt investing can still work in China’s property sector. He said that after the wave of defaults in 2021, many investors rushed into the sector too soon—and paid too much. “They made the first classic mistake in distressed investing: They bought it because it was cheaper than it used to be, not cheap relative to what it was worth. You have to get involved in the sweet spot from both a timing and entry price perspective,” said Koenigsberger, whose fund manages almost $6 billion of assets.