Check the trade balance. China exports 100 billion to USA. USA imports 5 times that from China. Like Trump says, lets have a trade war. We don't export shit to them anyways. #FuckChina
It's probably because US is importing US brand goods as a lot of US companies are doing outsourcing to exploit cheap labours.
That's totally it. When 35% tariffs come in, many S&P constituents should take a nose dive. Altho, with Trumps tax, dereg and stimulus, unsure how big the drop will be. Already got spanked hard expecting a major sell off in US-domiciled offshore producers. APPL Ford Foxconn are all holding up okay so far... appears the market is taking a wait and see approach with tariffs....
Don't blame on China. The massive deficit is caused by US banning on high tech products exporting to China. What other things can China buy from USA except agricultural products? There is only that much agricultural products you can buy to meet the population demand a year. Germany hasn't banned any export to China. Overall, it runs a net surplus with China for many years now. Next year Germany plans to connect the "silk" rail with China. So they can export even more. In a trade war, everyone loses. Without access to potential markets for more customers, company doesn't have much room to grow. Companies only can sell as that much in a mature market. The growth potential is very limited. Starbucks, MacDonald, Pepsi, Boeing, APPL, Disney, IBM, Universal Pictures, Goldman Sachs, Chase, etc.. will definitely get a haircut. With the addition of increasing interest rates, DJI probably goes back to 9,000 or even less.
I cannot think of any winner in a trade war. Even the workers who lost jobs to overseas probably will not get their jobs back, as these jobs will be done by robots eventually. Take Apple for example. If Apple moves the manufacturing of Iphone to US, there are two consequences. First the cost will rise, and Apple either has to accept a lower profit margin (which hits its share price) or hikes the phone price. Second, China is Apple's second biggest market, and Iphone will be punished in a trade war.
There are winners and winners are consumers and labours in other sectors. For example, Outsourcing will shuffles the American job market - consumers will buy a cheaper Nike shoes made in China say at $80, which would be sold at $200 if it was made in US. Then consumers will be able to spend $120 on their entertainment say in hospitality. As a result, the unemployment rate in hospitality will decline and stock prices in hospitality may rise.
Nail on the head. Doesn't matter tho. Foxconn is automating in China now, too. It's zero sum. In one case America keeps the jobs at higher price level. Or China keeps the jobs at a lower price level. Better we keep the jobs, technology, manufacturing ability, setup, know how, and physical plants here in America. China is stealing all kinds of intellectual property.
"The Fly" weighs in. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...capital-says-china-will-win-trade-war-america