This video shows some convincing arguments why China will fall behind around 2020-2030. Start watching around 0:32:00. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbeXz_hciqk In summary and in my opinion based on observation, the Chinese dynasty rulers disappointed and failed the entire Chinese civilization because in their ambition to hold on to their powers, they had implemented policies that stymied scientific and technological progress through innovation. And today, the Chinese government, in their effort to retained their power and legitimacy, have not yet realized the importance of innovation, value, and quality over quantity and mass sweat labor, or have not gathered enough political will, even with their latest 5-year plan, to promote innovation, or have not done enough. The Chinese government and the dynasty rulers are doing almost the same thing: maintaining slave labors and obedience in fearing innovations and free thinking would challenge the system. This is THE FATAL FLAW of the Chinese civilization. A system that does not permit the mind to flourish will perish. After all, what can possibly be more powerful than the mind? Any thoughts?