This video shows some convincing arguments why China will fall behind around 2020-2030. Start watching around 0:32:00. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbeXz_hciqk In summary and in my opinion based on observation, the Chinese dynasty rulers disappointed and failed the entire Chinese civilization because in their ambition to hold on to their powers, they had implemented policies that stymied scientific and technological progress through innovation. And today, the Chinese government, in their effort to retained their power and legitimacy, have not yet realized the importance of innovation, value, and quality over quantity and mass sweat labor, or have not gathered enough political will, even with their latest 5-year plan, to promote innovation, or have not done enough. The Chinese government and the dynasty rulers are doing almost the same thing: maintaining slave labors and obedience in fearing innovations and free thinking would challenge the system. This is THE FATAL FLAW of the Chinese civilization. A system that does not permit the mind to flourish will perish. After all, what can possibly be more powerful than the mind? Any thoughts?
The problem is you can't just take a snapshot of a country now and try to deduce any kind of meaningful conclusion from it without taking into account it's history and culture. If you had done a snapshot analysis of America in the 1850's, you would think it would have forever remained a fringe outpost of the western world. The pertinent question from the video is really: Will China fall into the middle-income trap like Thailand, Indonesia,etc and not being able to transition into a high-income country like most Western states? We have to look at the Asian states that have successfully transitioned from an industrial manufacturing export-oriented economy to a high-tech services, consumer based one with some of the highest GDP per capita in the world. Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong,etc... Now there is something interesting about this list. They are all Far East Asian Confucian states. That should tell you somehing about the future trajectory of China.
I disagree that Chinese will fall in the next 10-20 years since my observation of the Chinese is that they are ruthless businessmen and the people have a "take no prisoners" type of attitude when dealing with foreigners. They are bred to sacrifice mind and body with the sole objective to become " the world #1 economy". I think they will adapt strategies as time move forward and will maintain dominance for a longer time than most people project. The Chinese are more creative than you think ... copying products and evading legal hurdles for the last 20 years, is not an easy feat. My opinion is to give them more credit and respect them for what they have achieved in the last 40 years. Know that they will deceive and cheat to get their way. Accumulation of money is their prime objective at all levels of the Chinese society.
Thanks for sharing. He makes a lot of good points. It sparked some questions in my mind. He compared inequality in China to inequality in Mexico. Doesn't China have low crime rates.. So.. maybe.. inequality is not all the same? I agree with you though.. "A system that does not permit the mind to flourish will perish. "
I agree with you, being a HK chinese working and living in China since 2005, I have more reasons to hope it isn't the case, but it is. From what I see, it's the unfair wealth redistribution that will sink China, not helped by and ageing population due to the one child industry started in the late 70s, early 80s. Thank you for an fair assessment, Grandluxe The cheap labour been running out, so far private industry can't maintain their competitive advantage in labour cost, the lack of innovation and a weak export market did a lot of damage in 2010 and 2011. Middle class had rushed into R/E in the current bubbles, making a consumer based economy is distance dream due to the lack of disposable income. The speculators who brought the most expensive R/E at the peak around late 2009, early 2010 are already under water. hi Richie90, The mainland had a history of knocking off things, after 1949 China copied the Mig15, Mig19, Mig21 and the Su27 to meet defence needs. Major civil/industry projects were started with USSR's help in the early 1950s. Communist countries just have such a culture. Now of course they don't give a toss who are they copying from... South Korea went thru the same thing but it's different now, just look at their consumers electronics and their entertainment industry. HK and Taiwan are into innovations, but these two area are no longer major forces in manufacturing. To me the biggest source of cheats and deceives come from you know who (think Cuba, or even the middle east), it's a matter of time before they ruin it for everyone. Maybe I am overly negative, but it feels like living in an ageing and dieing empire, and us Chinese had a fair share of that. We are having the same social problems as the late 1940s, or even the late 1800s, again it points to corruption and/or unfair wealth redistribution. Cheers Willie
Chinese are definitely less macho than Mexican, LMAO Major cities does have very low crime rates, but I bet we have a higher rate of employment than Mexico. You have to account for the different culture, in CN they are into Counterfeit goods (or food, scary shit) and corruption instead of running drugs. As much as I love the place, I ignore the propaganda, but I really hate the inequalities imposed on the masses.
what about the US? " hate the inequalities imposed on the masses." why do you care? where does impose come from?
I don't think so. China's spending on R&D now is second largest in the world after USA. Japan is the third. By 2020, China's R&D spending will the world largest. Usually nations with most R&D spending are the most innovative countries in the world and prosperity normally goes with it. Unless China does something stupid between now and then, China probably will be the most innovative country by 2030.