More like 3.4 Trillion, according to the CIA, at the END of 2008. Do the math guy. You're delusional if you think 3.4 will compound 5 fold in 20 years at 5% per year. In 2028, the US will still be at least twice Chinas size.
China grows because they depend on selling to others. They need to grow at 10% a year just to quell unrest from the poorer provinces. Think they will keep growing at 10% ad infinitum? Expect some major backlashes from some countries in the future, who are not thrilled that the jobs constantly get outsourced there, and learn to build nearer to home, or slap heavy tariffs on chinese goods.
Just because democracy works in certain part of the world doesn't mean it will work in ALL parts of the world. That's the flawed idea behind the rapidly expanding "border" of the US. The problem with the US is that they're forcing their form of government on other people. How nice Iraq is turning out to be huh? The West is trembling in China's wake and doing all their best to put it down with stories about human rights violation, pollution control, etc. Most developing countries on the cusp of joining the ranks of the developed countries will experience these problems. A developing country has more pressing issues to handle and money to spend on other than cleaning up their air. That's the leisure that rich countries have. With that said, China could be the largest, but I doubt they will be the top in 20 years. But I don't doubt they will get there soon enough.
I would not worry about the economic progress made by China if I were a westerner. I can list various reasons: 1. China has no pricing power. Anything that China buys, the price is inflated; and anything that China sells, the price is deflated. 2. The western countries control the key technologies and the strategic natural resources such as oil. 3. China's contribution to modern science and technology has been negligible and will remain so in the foreseeable future. 4. The elite people in China lack the necessary confidence to modernize the country, and the best choice for many of them is to either work for a foreign company or emigrate to a foreign country. The ordinary Chinese people are indeed hard working. However, it is the elite class that really determines the competitiveness of a country. I cannot see why China can be a major power if her contribution to modern science and technology remains negligible and her elite class lacks confidence.
so what is your opinion? i don't think any single country will emerge as a powerhouse, seems you agree...
A lot less like 2 trillion, at least you admit it when you're wrong. Now look at China's growth statistics for the last 6 years - see a pattern? You're delusional if you think China's growth will be limited to 5% per year. In Q1 of 2008 it's still growing in double figures, annualized, amid the credit crunch. And that 3.4 trillion figure doesn't take into account exchange rates. Is the Yuan appreciating or depreciating against the major currencies? You know where the largest supply of labor is as you've read the figures I gave you, although you neglected to include them in your argument. One other point - you know where the World's largest deposits of uranium are? No, not in Russian war heads anymore, they've all been sold to be used for fuel. I'll give you a clue - retail sales YoY in this country grew 22% in April, while fixed asset investment grew 25%.
God help us westerners if that is true since our elite class is forgoing modern science and technology for the easier profits of financial engineering, political cronyism, and legal wrangling. Confidence, however, we have an overabundance of. Wonder if you can market it in a can?
Like the old saying, "Those who hold the chips control the world". Unfortunately, by sending our knowledge and resources overseas we have weaken our economic advantage tremendously, as we are giving a way the latest technology for some quick profits. The future generations will have to face a great up hill battle if we donât wise up quickly. sg20