US, Japan, Germany and west European nations will still lead the world in advanced technology and science, it's the proven fact. China has the worldâs largest manufacturing base which will help them to become the economic power but still a low base technology; China has become what they are today because advanced nations given them all the grunt works, which they are more then happy to oblige to get the 1 billion population out of poverty. Besides Japan, most Asian are known not to have good engineering creativity, in fact they are still relying on the US for many of their designs. sg20
China won't even come close. The United States will still reign as the undisputed economic Superpower. Its simple Math, dudes. Chinas current GDP (REAL - not BS PPP) is 2 Trillion USD. At a generous 5% annual growth (Real), they'll hit 5.5 Trillion USD in 20 years. Most of their current growth is inflation. GDP at a 'red hot' 13% with inflation running at an Official 7-8%. lol.....
Figures from the CIA: GDP (purchasing power parity): $7.043 trillion (2007 est.) GDP (official exchange rate): $3.249 trillion (2007 est.) GDP - real growth rate: 11.4% (2007 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP): $5,300 (2007 est.) GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 11.7% industry: 49.2% services: 39.1% Population: 1,330,044,605 (July 2008 est.) Labor force: 803.3 million (2007 est.) That last figure is telling. Their median age is 33, and only 8% are over the age of 65. There are 270 million Chinese kids who will join the labor pool in the next 15 years. You know what they'll all want ...
Your China story has been blown up and manipulated not that anyone cares and from the our point of view China is still an oppressed country. You guys should be more patriotic and get rid of your communist root and join the free world as the way it's supposed to be. sg20
This is actually a problem for China. They HAVE to grow at 10% per year just to employ the masses constantly entering the job market. They are very paranoid about unemployment, and a possible revolution. Almost all the wealth is in the east as well. Large sections of the country are in extreme poverty and speak another language. They have the largest banks in the World now, but most are insolvent, propped up by their Gov. This is another potential time bomb, as is a complete environmental collapse (highly unlikely, but possible). What they have going for them is a seriously hard work ethic, wads of cash reserves, and a potential consumer class. Not to mention a grossly under valued currency. What they don't is that they are almost entirely export dependent still. A serious global recession could implode China from within. The US is paranoid about losing its undisputed economic mantle for good reason (current debt probs, Chinese potential, etc), but it won't happen anytime soon. Probably not in my lifetime I'd bet (I'm 46).
Doesn't change much if those stats are used. China will sit at 6-8 Trillion after 20 years. Thats IF they can keep real GDP growth at 5%, for two decades... Dont think so. The CIA stats didn't report inflation either.
Any statistics for that claim? Not the savings:lending ratio because we all live in a fiat economy, but relevant figures?
Just pointing out the flaws in your stats. China's GDP is not 2 trillions, more like 4. Extrapolate that as you wish, it's your money after all. And do you think inflation figures for the US and UK are correct?
By what? The generate debt we have now? I would be surprise if US still consider a good country to reside or even has any real output. If the current pace continue, the middle class get wipe, and the wealth relocate their wealth to other countries. As far as I see, and many others as well, US is not going anyway except south, unless our politicians talk about real issues.
Ah! I see how this thread will turn out, a West vs East twat-fest. Well I'd like to say I'm not anti-anything, 'cept racist ignorants. That includes some 'Mericans and some Chinese. The important facts are there for anyone to see; population and innovation are two. I really don't give a shit who's 'top dog' in 20 years because the stats will still be debated then. It'll be alternatively GDP vs growth as the two countries try to out-do each other for eternity. No one will 'win' but there will be plenty of voices on either side. You will all be happy that Russia and South America are still up and coming and the Middle East are coming to realize they'll never be the force they hoped they'd be. Europe will be somewhere that makes nice cheese and is good for a holiday to see some 'culture'.