Exactly - it's unknown stock (you won't find it through screening). Also check the chart, it's going up on high volume and down on low volume - it's still under accumulation. Who would sell stock growing 70%+ with P/E 20 and so strong insider ownership? 17.8
Tank I'm going to take you deeper than you've ever gone before... the background & what ADY is up against culture-wise. Chinese milk consumption low A survey by the Ministry of Agriculture shows China's per capita milk consumption is only 21.7 kilograms, a fifth of the world average, the People's Daily reported. "Chinese babies up to 12 months old are the same as Western babies in terms of health, but grow slower thereafter, especially during adolescence," the newspaper quoted the survey as saying. Many Chinese considered milk a kind of breast-feeding supplement for babies, and adults regarded drinking milk as childish, ignoring its nutritional value, said the newspaper. Experts have urged the public to "drink milk for a lifetime", saying the World Trade Organization measured a country's living standard by per capita milk consumption. "Dairy foods, like breast milk, are nutritionally rich and have various vitamins that can be easily absorbed," the newspaper quoted an expert as saying. In April, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao wrote when visiting a dairy farm in the southwestern municipality of Chongqing, "I have a dream to provide every Chinese, especially children, sufficient milk each day." But China still suffers from imbalanced milk consumption with urban per-capita consumption at 24.8 kilograms compared with two kilograms in rural areas. The Dairy Association of China is piloting a "free milk" plan in 8,862 primary and middle schools of 52 cities nationwide, covering more than 1.9 million students. >> Boy that I have a dream speech brings a tear to the stonedinvestors eye. Tank and I actually might share a dream soon that every boy and girl in China drink their milk. Research To Follow. ~ stoney
First Off let's give credit where credit is due besides Tank my dear friend Hillary Kramer has highlighted the stock and quite recently to this jan. American Dairy: Get Milk Posted Jan 11th 2007 9:30AM by Hillary Kramer Filed under: Hillary On Stocks Milk has never had a large presence in China, but that's changing very, very fast these days, which has meant great profits for dairy companies like American Dairy (NYSE: ADY). Despite the name, this company manufactures and distributes powdered milk, formula, soybean products, and walnut products in China. With their growing prosperity, Chinese consumers, with the encouragement of their government, are increasingly interested in these products. Given these trends, and the enormous number of potential customers, there's a huge upside potential for a company like ADY. Even more encouraging, the numbers show the company is already taking advantage of the situation. Net income tripled from 2003 to 2004, then nearly doubled from 2004 to 2005. So far 2006 looks like it continued that growth, with net income for the first six months of 2006 up nearly 84% over the same six months in 2005. Ian Wyatt, editor of The Growth Report, also identified the stock as his top conservative play. So far, most American investors don't know about this company, and you can still get in early. In late December the management of ADY announced that it would be making a push in America in 2007; as more investors become familiar with its great results and even greater potential, we could see this stock price really climb in 2007. Type of stock: A dairy and soy company in China, one of the potentially largest dairy markets in the world. Price target: ADY is currently at the very top of its 52-week range, but I wouldn't be scared off. I think we're going to see significant growth in 2007, followed by steady growth for years to come. I see this stock going to $30 in the next three months---the company is doing a road show in the United States in the coming weeks. So, get in now. Also, the big potential is if ADY "lists" its stock on the Shanghai exchange. >> Well folks! Can't deny it> the stonedinvestor is interested but how much of the recent spike and relative outperformance is due to the roadshow? We'll have to answer that in our minds before investing. More To Come...
Well folks I thought I'd try and track down that Ian Wyatt that Hillary mentioned. here he is: American Dairy, Inc. (NYSE: ADY) is the top conservative idea for 2007 from Ian Wyatt, editor of The Growth Report. He notes, "American Dairy is a pure play in the Chinese dairy industry. It is a small-cap Chinese stock that provides investors with impressive growth in an expanding market at an attractive valuation. "Helping to drive growth is the company's focus on quality and brand recognition. Consumer concerns relating to quality issues along with rising income levels in China are allowing consumers to spend more on premium products. "China's market for the consumption of dairy products is at an early stage and poised to grow. The country's current dairy consumption stands only at about a fifth of the world average, according to the Ministry of Agriculture in China. "In China, there is also a governmental push to promote the drinking of milk as part of a healthier diet. And given that there are over 200 million primary school children in China, the growth potential is sizeable. "Other key government programs to grow the Chinese dairy industry include exemption from corporate income tax and Value Added Tax (VAT) rebates. American Dairy receives VAT rebates and has a tax exemption through 2009. "The stock is not widely known by investors. This allows investors to enter into positions early and at decent valuations before the company becomes more known. William Lyons of Westminster Securities, the sole analyst following American Dairy, expects earnings of $1.18 per diluted share in 2006. "Its current pricing multiple of 16 times estimates seems extremely low for a firm that grew revenues 129% and earnings 154% in the most recent quarter. At these pricing levels, we feel shares of American Dairy are a solid buy with a price target of $25." Alright there's the damn downer a price target of $25 lets go with Hillary on the PT she's more upbeat at $30 and then ask ourselves where do we buy it. I'm not sure yet. There has been as explosive move from $20 to $26 a SI rule of thumb is always wait for a half retrace which would put us in at $23 something. What's to get excited about? Well that tax free business till 09' that gives us a year's worth of press releases before we have to start sweating paying taxes. That's sweet. Also, I like that this is the " conservative " play on these China lists. I've been researching a bunch of non conservative Chinese names and let me tell you it's like a Hong Kong movie with more changing of identities and reverse mergers than you would belive... Also with tech in the dumps, we have to ask ourselves that age old question: Got Milk In Your Portfolio? What About Chinese Milk? Bet You Don't Have That!
Tank - First I'd like to thank you for the video link and recommendation on ADY. Looks very interesting indeed. Stoney - I really appreciate you sharing your homework. I have only been on these boards for a few months, but I always look for your writings and also enjoy the weekly Barron's review (especially since my eff'n post office can't seem to get mine delivered until Monday most of the time). I will certainly keep an eye on ADY. The Doji's on the chart looks like we could see a pull back next week and I'll be looking to jump in somewhere below $24. Best of luck to you.
HOKU is going to report earnings soon. This might be a great shorting opportunity before the earnings call...Emphasize, *might*. The stock is trading way over any moving averages and the initial bump was overblown. Dr. Michael Roberts www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com
I bought HOKU at around 7 something, maybe some change below that. I put a stop market at 6.30, so I lost money money on that one. How much do you guys usually throw into these stocks? I usually put in about $500 with each one I get into since I don't have a large sum of money - yet. Maybe $1,000 if I feel really good about it. Kind of playing with all of this as a learning experience for right now.
This is for Tank. <JADE> Opinion LONG Date Opinion Formed 01/16/07 Price Opinion Formed 5.65 Score 0 C-Rate 0.0 Recommendation Stock is a Buy. Comment Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend. Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend. Relative Strength is Bullish. Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation. The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish. The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish. Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 1/19/2007) Week Close 6.08 Week Change 0.43 Week Open 5.65 Week High 6.20 Low 5.50 Price Analysis Yr. High 6.20 Yr. Low 2.69 MO Chg.(%) 44.4 SELL STOP 3.63 Moving Average Analysis Type Price % Slope 10 Day 5.26 115.7 UP 21 Day 4.74 128.2 UP 50 Day 4.52 134.5 UP 200 Day 3.99 152.2 UP Volume Analysis Ave Daily Volume(00) 3261 MO Chg.(%) 168.5 Up/Down Volume (U/D) U/D Ratio 3.2 U/D Direction UP On Balance Volume BL Positive OBV BL Negative OBV BL Money Flow(MF) 85 MF Direction UP Well we have a very nice technical posture here on JADE. Some more thoughts on the company: JADE is a fast growing, vertically integrated jewelry company that employs a 'mine to market' business strategy. LJ International is a pure play in the superlative growth of China's domestic jewelry sector estimated at over $20 billion and growing at 18% to 20% per year. Its has also established a presence as a growing wholesaler in the massive $45 billion U.S. jewelry market. Equally exciting has been the company's successful venture into the retail jewelry business vis-Ã -vis its ENZO retail chain in China, which currently comprises 35 stores and is expected to grow to 100 stores just in time for the start of the Beijing Olympics in June of 2008. Fiscal 2005 represented the third straight year in which revenues grew and the fourth straight year where earnings rose. In 2005,revenue was $94.6 million, an increase of 22%. Net income was $0.24 per share, an increase of 26%. Analysts expect LJI to earn $0.28 per share on $119.47 million of revenue in fiscal 2006 ending December 2006. The Street expects LJI to earn $0.39 per share on $143.97 million of revenue in fiscal 2007, up 21% year-over-year. Stonedinvesting will be adding JADE (and ADY) this week and holding through the 08 Olympics. LJI is well positioned with a premium brand in the Chinese jewelry market, which is poised for excess growth in the near and far term. You could say a stock that is up 44% in a month is overextended, but that wouldn't be stonedinvesting!