China watch list

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by thehangingman, Dec 29, 2006.

  1. This is not China related, but I believe this to be a good swing trade that I have outlined on my blog. The symbol is MED.

    Dr. Michael Roberts
    www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com
     
    #91     Jan 21, 2007
  2. A couple things this monday morn>
    Tax Fears Roil China Developers' Stocks
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    GREENTOWN CHINA HOLD (GTWCF) Stock Quote, Chart, News
    GUANGZHOU R&F PROP (GZUHF) Stock Quote, Chart, News
    SGRXF (SGRXF) Stock Quote, Chart, News
    SHIMAO PROPERTY HOLD (SIOPF) Stock Quote, Chart, News

    Shares of Mainland Chinese developers fell nearly 20% at the end of last week in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as investors fled the sector in a panic over an upcoming land appreciation tax.

    The market began to tumble on Wednesday, with the announcement of a new tax plan meant to counter growing real estate bubbles in key cities. Beijing's State Administration of Taxation will implement a progressive land appreciation tax that will take a bite of 30% to 60% of developers' capital gains, realized or not.

    The policy is in fact an old one, introduced in 1993, but was long neglected by local governments, which collected 1% to 3% of the sales price as a down payment but did not levy the full tax. It is due three years after construction on a property has commenced, whether or not it is sold.

    With property prices having risen 7% to 11% in Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou last year, China is determined to truly implement the appreciation tax.

    Responding to the announcement, Shenzhen-based China OCT slid 20% before closing at 18.6 yuan ($2.38) on Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Friday. Another Shenzhen developer, Oceanwide Construction, saw its price evaporate by 20.5% in three days. Gemdale posted a 19.2% drop in Shanghai.

    In Hong Kong, Mainland developers such as R & F Property and Greentown rebounded on Friday but their prices were still lower then Wednesday, by 7.6% and 6.8 %, respectively.

    As this measure is meant to raise money by taxing luxury real estate, securities house CLSA alerted investors to avoid investing high-end developers such as Shimao, Shui On Land and Shanghai Real Estate. Goldman Sachsalso forecast that developers with high margins such as R & F, GreentownandShimao will be affected.

    >>> ALERT* This is mainland China only and thus it elevates the value of being in Macau which should jump start our friend MPEL which just became 30% to 60% more valuable! ~ Stoney
     
    #92     Jan 22, 2007
  3. Alright Coloradoguy lets get you going on the right foot.
    This morning XING looks to be the China play, 5000 shares traded in the pre market up 2.5% Last friday it rolled down from $15.50 all the way to $15.00 > try and catch it this morning at $15.25 or so....
     
    #93     Jan 22, 2007
  4. Got XING at 15.28...
     
    #94     Jan 22, 2007
  5. Nice pick up Coloradoguy, I'm just beneath you.

    HOKU bouncing hard but you were stopped out.
    You need to decide your risk parameters, I for one don't use stop losses but i also take a few boots in the ass every quarter- I rely on my longs to balance everything out to the upside.

    Now for more fun. TSL is an solar China IPO that is looking better to me today because it's competitor Solarfun crapped out as an IPO. Solarfun had a shakey
    prospectus including selling a boatload of shares under market value and they have no clear plan for getting the silicon they need. TSL looks like it could get some of the disgruntled Solarfun investors cash. Let's keep it on the watch list-- it's IPO spike went up to $27 and then it sank all the way back to $20 before starting to rise again today.~ stoney
     
    #95     Jan 22, 2007
  6. "Hi Tank my name is Jade. You were a naughty boy and didn't pick me up this morning. I'm now up almost 4% and looking better than ever!"

    >> Wow found that on a napkin next to my computer! With a lipstick smudge. The 4% rise would have mitigated nicely the 10% fall today in ADY. Now I realize I wasn't clear about my first knock on ADY in this thread- which began with a lecture on volume and ended in a lecture about floats. The small float never bothered me as much as the always low volume. Because when a low volume stock attracts a big seller it really stands out and everything is magnified to the downside. So if you look at todays tape on ADY you can see what kind of firery hell only 72,000 shares can cause. Now back to dear sweet Jade. She if memory serves me correctly- is actually a smaller market cap than ADY, but she well used to trading 800,000 shares a day when she has to... She's a working girl no doubt about it, working her way up to the Olympics at which time she will hope to find a suitor.
     
    #96     Jan 22, 2007
  7. I got out of JBLU today. Got out of Frontier last week. What a mistake those two were. Maybe in the long run they'll make money but I don't have the patience to hold them that long. Right now I'm holding: ASIA, ACH, XING, and stoney - what do you think about TBV? I got in on that one when it was at about 4.20 or so. But I'm still down from my losses with those damn airlines. $120 more dollars to go and I'll have broken even. 998 more free trades on Ameritrade and then I'm going to have to decide if I want to stay with them or go with another broker. Hope everyone's having a good day... It won't fucking stop snowing in Colorado. There' still snow on the ground from the big dump a month ago... Peace :) ~CG
     
    #97     Jan 22, 2007
  8. Now for more fun. TSL is an solar China IPO that is looking better to me today because it's competitor Solarfun crapped out as an IPO. Solarfun had a shakey
    prospectus including selling a boatload of shares under market value and they have no clear plan for getting the silicon they need. TSL looks like it could get some of the disgruntled Solarfun investors cash. Let's keep it on the watch list-- it's IPO spike went up to $27 and then it sank all the way back to $20 before starting to rise again today.~ stoney

    Hot Damn! $20.90 Above Post & Entry. Close $23.00, up 10% Why Didn't anyone tell me? We're rich!
    :)
     
    #98     Jan 22, 2007
  9. The market is much less efficient with low float/volume - actually it's an edge for retail investor.
     
    #99     Jan 22, 2007
  10. Tank. What do you think? That $22 today was maybe my buy- I missed it. Looking at ADY this afternoon.

    Have you bought JADE yet? Get on it!

    Also folks CHDX another SI China Play is up $3 plus today you must use these links for more than amusement> when you see a great pick like CHDX explode from $18 to whatever and then pull back it's up to you to load up!

    Example #2 HMIN I've been screaming at you all to buy this Chinese Hotel play put in a nice higher low at $38 and see where we are now?

    Coloradoguy our Xing is limping along but I still have a good feeling about it. a $20 sort of feeling lets just let it pick up some momentum on it's own with a little patience. As soon as I can I'll look at TBV:cool:
     
    #100     Jan 23, 2007