the e&y may 2006 report on china npls ($900bio est. vs $350bio official est. and $550+bio independent estimates) was withdrawn for arguable-at-length type reasons but not the pwc one... http://www.pwc.com/extweb/service.nsf/docid/C83C88525573AED685256F950067CBDF/$file/NPLAsiaIssue7May2006.pdf and here's from mckinsey: http://www.harvardchina.org/conference/conf2006/documents/KeynoteSpeech.pdf ... beyond the carefully chosen language, interesting what they say about china's financial sector, npls etc, and see p.69 for a recap with rates in china more likely to go up than down, and a long overdue firesale of the AMC's holdings (themselves acquired at $.30c), more generally 'a more active npl market this year' on the cards, chances for further significant corrections on the construction & related (commodities) markets seem pretty high... to me at least... any thoughts?
Thanks for the links. very interesting... I like to compare China to a baby elephant. It's going to be huge but everytime it falls everybody will get hurt...