China Stock bubble + population size = Buy china?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Daal, May 6, 2007.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    There was never a bubble in history with a population of this size which means comparing to it tullips, japan or the US is a little silly. There is a LOT of greater fools in china in line to buy at higher prices, so short-term speculations there make sense. I could be wrong and this thing could pop tomorrow but I do believe that a bubble with a country running at 10% a year and with a pop this size(even taking out the poor masses and the people who can afford stock trading is increasing everyday) is different from others and the game can play for longer than expected. I wish I could daytrade their indexes.
     
  2. you're forgetting the gdp of the usa compared to china is 10 times and 90% of china is dirt poor and can barely eat. i'm betting 80% of china's bubble is outside money
     
  3. Daal

    Daal

    This number is only relevant if you compare total stock market cap at the height of the nasdaq bubble with china numbers now, adjusted for inflation.
    And as I said the numbers of greater fools there grow everyday more than any country and more than anytime history for any country, in other words they are getting rich
     
  4. You're right and I don't get how people are stupid enough to somehow think that Chinese people have money. That is a fucking poor country.
     
  5. China has 91 million brokerage accounts open (just read it on marketwatch.com), and gambling is in Chinese blood according to a lot of people who lived there. So, it is a buble, and it will bring tears as these things always do.
     
  6. Mvic

    Mvic

    The country as a whole may be poor but there are more than a few very rich Chinese, and more than a few in China translates to big numbers. I saw an item that cost $3500US sell over 400 units in the Shanghai Galleria in one day. I doubt any US mall could match those numbers.
     
  7. lol instead of china hording there 1.2 trillion of reserves why don't they spend it on there dirt poor population. they have zero healthcare are public housing. they have few roads. it would cost them 100 times there reserves to get there nation up to par.
     
  8. Daal

    Daal

    They might be poor but macau is bigger than las vegas in terms of gambling, that should tell you something
     
  9. zdreg

    zdreg

    china is growing 10 percent year. the currency is undervalued by 40 per cent. fast growth will alleviate alot of negatives
    there will be setbacks but the game is not over.

    (as for public housing it only confirms my suspicion that there are people lurking on ET who do not believe deeply in free markets)
     
  10. The examples of how many "rich" or "well off" Chinese there are doesn't really impress me and it's fairly hard to deduce the true number of poor Chinese people.

    I think there are a number of reasons for their markets to keep going up...one of which is the government. I don't think they'll let the markets fall. That's a good enough reason for me...although I'm really uninterested in making money that way...but I'd say it's certainly a safe investment if you want to make money going long.
     
    #10     May 7, 2007