China sparks suspicion as it holds release of statistics

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by srinir, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. srinir

    srinir

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-sparks-suspicion-as-it-holds-release-of-statistics

    China sparks suspicion as it holds release of statistics

    Concealment added to whispers that Beijing doctors figures

    ISSAKU HARADA, Nikkei staff writerDECEMBER 14, 2018 05:32 JST

    BEIJING -- China is suspending the release of some economic statistics, provoking suspicion that it is concealing some inconvenient truths. The conjecture comes on top of long-standing accusations that China's figures are perhaps not that accurate.

    A case in point is the Guangdong provincial government's monthly purchasing managers index, which covers local manufacturers. It is released separately from the PMI compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics.

    The Guangdong index started to attract attention in August because it fell below the make-or-break 50-point mark, signaling contraction, for the first time in two and a half years.


    The index's downtrend since last spring was especially notable because it comfortably exceeded 50, indicating growth, at 53.4 in March. Analysts speculated that the direction may have to do with the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, as Guangdong has a concentration of companies exporting to Europe and the U.S. According to the statistics bureau, the number of money-losing local manufacturers increased by 19% from a year ago, with their combined losses increasing 66% year on year, in the first nine months of this year.

    But when Nov. 1, the scheduled release date, rolled around, no October PMI was released by the Guangdong government. Asked about the data, a spokesperson of the local government said it had been delayed due to a system update.

    On Dec. 3, the Guangdong government said on its website that it stopped releasing its PMI data in November after the statistics bureau announced in late October that it will start centrally conducting PMI surveys.

    ...

    The monthly Export Leading Indicator by China's General Administration of Customs reflects data including new orders and costs at exporters. A spokesperson has customarily given a briefing on trade statistics once every three months using this indicator. But the administration stopped announcing the indicator after the release in April. It did not respond to queries about the reason.

    China also stopped disclosing data regarding the exports and imports of crude oil, cars and other major items by country and region since the data for April, making it difficult to make a detailed analysis of the kinds of products China imports from and exports to the U.S.

    The total value of China's imports and exports already exceeded the full-year figure for 2017 as of mid-November, the country's customs administration said on Nov. 30, in the run-up to the U.S.-China summit in Argentina. The authorities may have wanted to stress that the effect of the trade war with the U.S. was minor, but it will not be possible to win trust if it continues to disclose only data that is convenient.
     
  2. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    Well it's quite clear without these rumors that China is experiencing severe slump. Expectations have already shaped about the growth prospects. It's probably not the best decision in current situation to rig the data since it will have dire consequences
     
  3. mlawson71

    mlawson71

    Even if they rig the data the truth will become obvious (if it already hasn't) sooner or later, I don't see a point in such shenanigans.
     
  4. srinir

    srinir

     
  5. mlawson71

    mlawson71

    Do you think they'd avoid releasing it altogether?