China's main stock index tumbled 3.17 percent at the opening on Monday after monetary tightening by the central bank suggested authorities wanted to cool the booming market. "Li, Asia's Richest Man, Says China Has Stock `Bubble'" "China's Stocks Heading for `Full-Scale Mania,' CLSA's Wood Says " "Merrill China Chairman Says Prices `Out of Control'" Does anybody trade SGX FTSE Xinhua China A50 Index Futures ?? Well, I think I do not need aother arguments to short the market... Have fun !
I disagree totally. The best contraindicator for a bullish stock market is the following "retail" news : "The number of brokerage accounts set up to buy mainland shares and mutual funds amounted to 327,019 yesterday, according to the China Depository & Clearing Corp. Investors opened a record 385,121 new accounts on May 8."
But there are 1.6 BILLION chinese. That number of new accounts is a drop in the ocean. I dont understand why there are so many people so keen to call the top of this market? I cant imagine many people on here trade the market directly and even if the index does fall do you believe it will cause the US in go into a melt down? If you dont and are trading say the ES ER2 or YM why does it matter so much except for I told you so points. Cheers
The Nasdaq went up 100% from 1999 to 2000. There were flashing warnings signs all over the market in 1997 and 1998. Even if you were patient, and just went short NQ future contracts in the summer of 1999 and held onto them knowing you're right and hoping the market collapses you would have blown out your account before the actual collapse eventually came. Same with China. I wonder how many people will get burnt betting against ~500 million little Chinese first-time stock investors each with $5000 accounts. It's like fighting millions of tiny fire ants. They're small but they can sting. So, I believe the above poster might end up being right. China will go a lot higher. Ridiculously high. And then, on some beautiful day when everybody only remembers sell-offs and bear markets from the history books.. we will see China top out finally.
Well, I could answer this time it´s different :=)))) But some of your arguments make sense. You remember Greenspan´s "irrational exuberance" phrase ? Well, his remarks where made with the American Enterprise Institute in DECEMBER 1996 !! 5 years before the markets slumped... So, do I need to wait another 5 years for the Chinses slump ? By the way : the Chineses have the highest savings rate worlwide, approximately 40 % !! So, the boys and girls have still a lot of cash to spend...
How long did it take you to make up that bullshit? Do you have any semblance of knowledge about the age distribution, wealth distribution, etc. in China's "1.6 billion?"
11 out of 12 Asian markets are actually up this morning: http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia Shanghai is up 1.04%.
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/equity/emini-china.html A close as you are going to get to being able to trade the China mania.