The world will be falling into a recession if the China trade war accelerates. This is why I, a bull, have not gone in long yet (aside from the long I entered on May 16th in MNQ, to see bits). I will miss lots of movement, but until Trump reveals his namesake card, there is simply no way this world will survive his shit. And to prove the point, look at all the stuff you have that is "Made in China." It is pretty much everything you own. Will you spend more to buy China, or will you splurge more to buy the not-so-cheep shit from non-China? I guess it depend on your paycheck, now doesn't it?
actually... in terms % drag to the GDP it's miniscule... the market is saying that.. we are at levels very close to Trump tweeted the 25%.. market is like saying 'trade war, what trade war'.. I'd think we've got 3 weeks or so to shake the tree.. my pro boys are gonna collect the chips, then we are off to the races for the earning run... the FAAMG will again deliver block buster earnings... especially MSFT... providing the leadership..
I hear what yer saying. But the current drag on the GDP is not the problem...It is the after-effects. This stuff takes time to trickle-down. Unless and until Frumpy alleviates this nightmare, the numbers are going to start jetting down. And do not forget, China is still holding a levy on top of all this, to retaliate to Trump's threat to boost in more tariffs. If Trump does it, China will retaliate. Then we have the full-on trade war. Talk about feeling like a peak. Oi!
I do not like him simply because of his style of leadership. He's willy-nilly. Not professional at all. He really is a narcissist, and that is not healthy.
Trump needs to chillax. I can provide it. I know all the good chill-listening-shit. Man. Cheep rates. I should DJ the West Wing, man.
Here is the view from a non economist: Actually the math is very interesting: US imposed a 10% tariff, China devalued the Yuan by 10% so the effect on US consumers is zero. Who then pays for the tariff? Chinese consumer in the form of inflation. There is therefore no effect on the US economy. As for the US export, it is <$120 billions to China, the effect on a $20 trillions US economy will be minimal.
U.S. is not going to reach a trade deal with China. Not this month, and not this year either. U.S. is asking China to even the playing field which doesn't seem like a lot until you realized the uneven playing field is how the King of China maintain his wealth, influence, and power. In addition, this trade war tactic that Trump is using is not working with China because China is not a democratic country. The Chinese government doesn't need peoples vote to stay in power. As long as the Chinese government have effective propaganda, they can tell their citizens that they would rather go hungry and "eat grass" than to give in to the enemy--the U.S.A. Having said that, if shit is about to hit the fan in China (e.g. financial bubble leaking), they will print more money to try to contain the crisis which will lead to further devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. If they try to use interest rates to stabilize the Chinese Yuan (e.g. raising interest rate), it will make things worst. If they want to use their foreign reserve, they have to find way to increase it amid the corrupted environment. Things could get out of hands very easily. I really don't see a happy ending to this.
I think the media vastly over estimates the narrative of china can endure anything... Once people have tasted the good life, they cannot go back, they are as soft as Westerners now. This ain't the 60s generation, everyone has internet there now, they know what's going in the world, even in Tier 3 cities. Friend's dad came back from Shandong province, it's absolute depression, everything is very slow, high end restaurant everyone used to go to closed down, they told him nobody has money to eat in expensive places. He said you can't withdraw any US Dollars in china right now...Auto sales down 11 months in a row in china, in May down big again... Honda and Toyota only 2 car makers up in May, up double digits! They went from German cars to cost saving Japanese as the new hot commodity, most indebted consumers on earth, by a long shot... The game is over, china collapses hard in 2019, they are currently in a depression, they can't even stop it and they are printing absolute records amount of money, Inflation is running out of control, in 2020 hyperinflation comes with the collapse of RMB, they will have to float, RE prices will crash, poverty and chaos will rule china Winnie better watch his back, a lot of people are unhappy with his leadership and increasingly hostile in china... When people go broke, they lose their manners
What can China do? They can mess with our interest rates but that would be economic suicide on their part. They can play games with rare metals but we will just use start opening the mines we closed. Their one and only hope is that Trump is voted out and that a chinese sympathiser president takes his place. If Trump is relected short China.