China retaliation predictions?

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Here4money, May 13, 2019.

  1. Specterx


    Sell off our trillions of debt in exchange for what? Zero coupon cash? EUR assets, maybe Greek debt? Offshore Yuan (that would make it pretty hard to devalue)?
    #11     May 13, 2019
    zdreg likes this.
  2. zdreg


    People will remember Trump's remark,
    ‘Trade wars are good, and easy to win’

    It may be the equal of Irving Fischer's , never to be forgotten remark just prior to the 1929 crash:" the stock market has reached a permanently high plateau."
    #12     May 13, 2019
  3. zdreg


    Balancing out trade is not a worthwhile goal. Fixing the American Education system so we can have enough skilled workers to compete in world trade is a worthwhile goal. Getting rid of government regulations so that American private companies can compete with the best in the world is a worthwhile goal.
    Stopping whining from becoming an American trait is a worthwhile goal.
    #13     May 13, 2019
    piezoe and tommcginnis like this.
  4. dozu888


    do we have any poker players here? I don't see any so far..

    this is a buying opportunity.. the talk is still going on, and will likely settle on the agreed terms China backed out from.

    China is already out of bullets... the US has 350b more to put tariff on.. why are people already pissing in pants, when you have more bullets than the enemy? pathetic.

    yes, trade war IS easy to win, when you are the one running the deficit.. just watch.

    Notice LiuHe's comments, mentioned 'dignity' a few times... this is just a show right now... eventually when the agreement is reached, it will be pitched to the Chinese people as 'China won after a counter strike of $60b'

    if you can't read this, sorry you aren't that good in trading... because it's all about unfolding stories.
    #14     May 13, 2019
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  5. dozu888


    this is another myth that China can simply sell off the debt... the only logical outcome is Fed will buy up everything... (already guaranteed target rates at the next crisis).... now what, China is gonna hold a bunch of cash.. not earning anything, AND is further diluted due to Fed having to print... no sane person will do that.

    the dollar recycling scheme is what this trade war is all about, not really about the deficit... we are reserve currency, we are SUPPOSED TO run deficit so the currency can flow globally.... it's a global 'tax' that is paid to the US, as part of the 'protection' lol.
    #15     May 13, 2019
  6. zdreg


    As they doing already doing in Africa and South America they are buying real assets inc. farm land and infrastructure like ports. they have no reason to hold US treasury paper backed by fiat paper of a dying empire. China won't roll over maturing paper. now, just may be a good time to sell US paper as risk on(fearful) traders rush to buy US paper at elevated prices.
    #16     May 13, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  7. SteveM


    Every -5% drop in the US stock markets destroys about $1-2 trillion in wealth - most of it American wealth.

    China doesn't need to retaliate. Just staying this course will do plenty of damage.
    #17     May 13, 2019
    Here4money and zdreg like this.
  8. dozu888


    wealth is never 'destroyed'.... whoever sold at the bottom simply transferred the wealth to whoever bot the dip.
    #18     May 13, 2019
    Specterx likes this.
  9. dozu888


    if Africa/SA assets are that much better, why had not other countries bot them already?... these are bottom of the barrel assets nobody wants.

    of course China's treasury holding is quite big so diversifying would make sense.. but the US paper is still the safest... there is no perfect solution here.. either they buy the US paper and gradually lose value, or buy the shit assets with obvious geopolitical risks.
    #19     May 13, 2019
  10. zdreg


    re: China
    It is not either or. Acquisitions occur all the time. By your logic even Buffett should never buy anything

    furthermore you are making an assumption that US paper will gradually lose value. I think one day inflation will skyrocket in the US and the value of the US paper will drop precipitously.
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
    #20     May 13, 2019