well. China is raising tariffs on $60b of US goods starting June 1. I guess US will be announcing further tariff increase very soon. So title has to be changed to : China and US retaliation prediction dates.
Jawboning, phoney, lies... merely to manipulate the market in the short term. The real trade war, if there is going to be one, will continue for a long time. China is in the catbird seat and has virtually unlimited patience to work out the best deal they can hammer. Trump is facing an election in 18 months. Who do you think has the upper hand here?
Wait till they devalue the Yuan and start selling off our trillions in debt... China has the upper hand and that's what trump should have realized before placing 25% tax on tariffs Friday morning.
I think Trump is correct in trying to balance-out our trade with China. The imbalance is not Trump's doing, but rather from prior administrations... and is likely to America's benefit to "correct". China, of course, is on the advantaged side of all of this and is likely unwilling to relinquish their advantage willingly... especially not in time for Trump's reelection campaign. China is going to give up its $800 Billion/yr trade advange only when it wants something worth more than that or to avoid grave consequences. I can't imagine what either of those could be.
Many supporting themes and sub-melodies being played here, but the founding ostinato is that TrumPidiot made the only dollars he made in the 80s-90s by executing pump&dumps, one after the other, until Wall Street figured out that he wasn't just taking them for a ride by accident but entirely by design. On Election Night 2016, he watched the market plummet as results came in, and he saw the turn-around that occurred by the cash open. And he thought, "Did I do that?!?" So, for ~18 months, Agent Orange could turn the market with a tweet or a headline. But for the last few months, that hasn't worked so well -- Mueller Report, indictments, whatever: no market movement. DPRK missile launches? No effect. Blah blah blah. Right now, he's raking in as much as he humanly can (Haven't you wondered what has taken Eric and DJ out of the news?), to the point where he might *truly* be a billionaire before his term (singular) is up. The "China Trade" drama is the current valley from which "Wolf! Wolf!" will still produce a reaction by the villagers. It won't last -- eventually, all will realize that The Tonal Dumpf is only to be paid heed so you don't step in it.
Do you think voters,in the next presidential election, are going to forgive Trump for tanking the market?
Very interesting question. In toto, I don't know -- no one could: it depends on what the Democrats will serve up. But right now, THE ENTIRE WORLD wants numbnuts to win, as it takes the U.S. out of every [global] game that there is. The British, Swedes, and Germans are all selling more arms because of []. The South American continent is plowing like mad, to answer China's call for imported soy, grains. Shipping ("sinking" for the last two years) has turned a corner as more trade steps into the U.S./China void. So our *enemies* and our friends *all*gain* as [] continues to stain the U.S. global position. So I would expect, in a realpolitik view, there to be a lot of glad-handing coming our way over the next 18 months -- all of it to end/terminate/re-negotiate as of the end of 2020. , because of [].