I think next week the shanghai gets to 4000. Next sell off will be greater than 10% when it does happen, if the shanghai continues to power ahead and reach 5000+ by mid summer a 20-40% correction is possible.
40% correction is possible from here but IF it ever happens it will be politically precipitated, not just some random market sell off. The danger for the Shanghai market is that the political factions in Shanghai that get their corruption paybacks through manipulation of the stock on that market are under fire from the new ruling factions in Beijing. Witness the recently created corruption task force that was set up by Beijing to focus on the manipulation of stocks on the Shanghai exchange. The type of thing one would expect to see after a market crahses and a lot of people get hurt, not when things are going so well. Another in a list of red flags that suggest that Beijing is not happy with what is going on at the Shanghai exchange.
I heard that there might be an LBO, either GE or Blackstone might look at just buying the markets and consolidating. That should be good to squeeze another 300 points out of the Dow.