China is the saviour

At the end of this crisis, I think we will thank China for pulling us out of it. But how can a half centralized government know how to apply the stimulus so well?

Anyway you should sell your gold, silver, guns, barbed wire, canned food and bottled water. It is all over Johnny.

OK here is a good wild west song about it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGEEAtS5qmU

 

do you seriously think this is all over?

china needs american demand to enable its manufacturing.

 

I am not an economist but just my gut feel. China has few other very big trading partners. It is not all about the USA anymore.

But the USA will benefit and do very well.

 

as i have said many times before there will not be a long term economic recovery until the ability to raise capital is working. at the moment with low returns and high risk there is no incentive for people to invest. as soon as the fiscal stimulus finishes the appearance of a recovery will also finish.

the credit market has to be fixed or another method of capital generation is required, which provides safe and sufficient returns. no capital, no new start ups, no new employment, no recovery.

 

The question is that if growth in China will result in manufactured items imported from other nations or just that China will buy up their raw materials and natural resources and manufacture it themselves.

If second is the scenario then Chinese growth will be of little help to the rest of the world. They may still end up buying Boeing planes and ultra high tech machinery but would not go for the TV sets, Shoes and PCs.

 

The Chinese government has been able to inflate the Chinese economy through taking money from projects they didn't like and pump them into projects they felt would create economic growth. It works now, it seems, but when the money run out and there's no continuing stream of government money to projects, and as a result the companies has to cope by themselves, I do not think we will see a growing Chinese economy.

 

If you want to make few quick points on ES short it if it gets to 936.5. You should be able to make 2-3 points. Or if you have guts you can ride it till 931.5.

10 lot will give quick $2,500. Who cares that it is all over now. We can still short.

 

good point. even if the chinese economy improves there is no evidence they will invest where wanted. they are likely to grow from domestic demand rather than foreign demand. that may mean they will cut the us out almost all together.