We hope Trump has not launched the trade war wilfully which is harming all parties, but he did, and adjusted the tax rate whatever he wants 30%,10%,15%...
The fever is only part of the reason. China has 10000*1000 ton gap in the supply this year, the world pork market is 10000*600 ton. We will see a sharp decline of the pork price in about 1 year. China has a 3-year pork cycle for many years drived by solo farmers, in the last cycle, the price dropped about 40% percent from the high
Yes, agree. Since some years ago, individual farmers are not encouraged to raise pigs anymore. Bigger breeding farms are supplying mostly to the market. There has been a cycle that price goes down due to oversupply and then price goes up when supply is reduced. But this time is obviously more than that, a big supply gap mainly caused by unexpected swine flu has exerted huge impact on market including abnormal price increase.
China is a crazy country, Chinese people have herd effect in all the markets. Think about you when you trade against 0.7 billion people whose IQ is below average. And 0.5 billion people whose IQ is far below average
the issue is that if those 1.2 billion people decide that the market is going the opposite way as you do, you are going to be steamrolled, no matter how smart you are. On a side note, I hope that they restart imports soon, having to buy shitty ground pork at the same price of beef sirloin is not funny at all. If I were playing with futures I would short pork now.. when pork becomes more expensive than beef that is the moment when people start switching to beef..
China low IQ? I think we (US) are the one with low IQ. http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/average-iq-by-country/