Discussion in 'Trading' started by hedgeking, Oct 17, 2007.
this is china's final once in a lifetime blowoff phase. ptr $450 bil cap
PTR is something else.
4-Oct-07 173.35 177.09 170.63 176.43 695,300 176.43
$80 point run in 13 days.
Ready for a pull back below $200.
I have not seen the Chinese this bullish, this much ever.
There will be so much retail dip buying too because the public made double/triple++ gains in the market and use those funds.
FXI ...hitting another high and hitting it hard...10% more or less from the low yesterday .... I have been looking to short and just cant see why or when...peace...will just wait
Some of these Etfs and other china related stocks look like the dot coms of the late 90's. I dont know how long it can last but when you see 100% gain in only 2-3 months you know that when it does come time and the top is reached that some of these stocks will give up 50% of their stock price.
PTR is up over 60% in just one month, something isnt right, the next correction whenever it is will make the nasdaq bubble look like nothing.
I haven't subscribed to any trading newsletters ... but I get this shit in the mail that says ... buy this and that Chinese stock ... and make 3000% return on your investment
I hope, we see oil go to $120 a barrel ... see china is not able to produce products at the price it used to ... see Chinese people can't afford shit ... see the gap between the rich and poor widen in china ... the percentage of rich to the entire population drop to less than 0.1% ... and so the majority suffer and die from hunger
Wait until the edict that the Chinese QDII can start investing in Hong Kong. Once some of the premium comes off the Shanghai stocks they won't look as attractive. Doll said that his fund is investing in the China stocks in Hong Kong in anticipation of 30-60B in fresh money coming out of china to buy them up on the HK exchange at discount prices.
Also, big leadership shifts going on this month in China's financial system. Wait to see how they play out.
Another thing that you want to look for is a contraction of the trade surplus. This year we are already haeda of the whole of last year and posting record surpluses each month. As the US consumer gets more streched we should see those numbers start to go down and that too should have an impact.
1st correction will come in the weeks before the QDII can invest in HK (they will sell in China to buy the same stuff cheaper in HK). Buy that dip for a rally in to the Olympics, then when you start to see some distribution in the months leading up to the Olypics and new highs ae not as impressive or as frequent that will be the time to go short.
That's my playbook anyway. For now I am opportunistically selling vert put credit spreads in the front month and buying OTM calls in the follwoing month with the proceeeds.
The one thing I never forget when thinking about shorting FXI is that the Chinese have $2.3 trillion in savings that is not yet deployed in the crazy markets over there.
Really, that's what you "hope" for?
What are you trying to say, that you care for pathetic and cheap people??!
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