China housing bust may be underway

Discussion in 'Economics' started by wilburbear, Jan 8, 2006.

  1. Bump.

    And, can this spread to other regions of the globe?
  2. mhashe


    Nothing like a good Banking crisis to destablize a commie govt. Probably a sign of GDP growth slowdown. Will effect commodities like steel, copper, Soy Beans, Crude oil etc. and Chinese ADRs. Smart Chinese money behind the recent gold move? A interesting hypothesis.
  3. 1. Chinese banks really in a state of perpetual crisis - maybe this gets them to straighten up.

    2. Commodity price growth retrenches = structural long oppty.

    3. Smart chinese money buying gold? Yup.

    4. Still long my FXI. Buy more if it pisses out.
  4. range


    Great article. Thanks!

    An economic slowdown in China would likely have an impact around the globe.
  5. mhashe


    well they are'nt dumb. They've been diversifying their banking sector risk by quietly selling off troubled banks at grossly inflated valuations to foreign banks. After I read the following last month I was thinking why let foreign buyers in now? This real estate article seems to tie well to their sudden relaxation of buyout rules.

    Citigroup Leads Bid to Buy Bank In China

    By Ben White
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Saturday, December 31, 2005; Page D01

    NEW YORK, Dec. 30 -- A consortium led by Citigroup Inc. bid $3 billion for a controlling stake in China's Guangdong Development Bank, a Chinese business magazine reported Friday. If completed, the deal would be among the largest foreign investments ever in China.

    Citigroup's stake could exceed the 20 percent cap the Chinese government usually imposes on foreign ownership of domestic banks, the magazine, Caijing, reported. It said the exception would be granted because of Guangdong Development Bank's troubled finance
  6. Housing boom bust in Shanghai a year ago. I think we're going to see a full recovery with all this negativity. It seems the bears have hit overseas. Guangdong had their housing boom years ago. I live here, I should have some idea...
  7. $3bill for Citi is nothing, its like $3.
  8. So, no new construction ? Enough housing to run the cities and manufacturing operation expensions/restructuings ?

    I would not be a housing bear in china... regional speculative excesses that are running ahead of peoples paychecks will get washed out and things will just move to other locales ....

    Comment ?
  9. I love the "I was cheated" comment. Just wait until all those who leveraged the shit out of themselves here in the good ol' USA get a hold of a lawyer to try to get themselves out of the stupidity they got themselves into in the first place.

    That's when the real fun will begin.
    #10     Jan 9, 2006