it's likely... people are trying desperately to get money out of the country... very tight control right now over there, and crypto is one channel to get the money out... desperate/panic time over there... yet we have people on these boards yelling the US is gonna lose... how? we run a deficit, how do you lose with a deficit? manufacturing is easy to replace... cheapER labor than China all over the world... the process is already going on... part of the reason China wants to have a shift towards higher value industries hence the high demand for IPs... that's why Trump wants to shut them down. Customers are always more difficult to find than vendors... you lose the US market, the loss maybe permanent as the supply chain will shift to source from other countries. Not to mention, in the worst case scenario, global economic sanction is in play... Geographically, the US has military bases have China surrounded from the west, south and east.
I think everything becomes slightly easier to decipher if you put yourself in their shoes. what is the ultimate goal for Trump? guy is a self made billionaire, he's set for life without this stinking president job. what is the ultimate goal for the Chinese leaders? to maintain the party control.. which can be at risk if GDP stops growing and unemployment shoots up.. it's literally rock and hard place for them because if they give in that means economical colonization with western banks/insurance/financial services go in and kill the locals; or they face an immediate problem of losing the US market... but politicians usually choose the immediate control and push the problem down the road. look, just a few days ago they almost had a deal.. but backed out perhaps some senior party boss didn't like it.. so Trump plays the tariff card, just to show the determination. what other choice is there for China? I don't see any.
Eh... Not entirely self made. Guy went to private military boarding school so he had a leg up. But I agree that his motivations don't seem to be anything but either MAGA or profit-by-tweet.
also, it's laughable to suggest that China can sell the treasuries to cripple the US.. it's like if you lent a lot of money to the bully down the street, and bully has unlimited printing power... and you're gonna threaten him by selling off his paper? doesn't take half a brain to figure this out.
credit when credit is due... what is the ratio between self made billionaires and people who have attended boarding school.. dude is a real estate guy... watch his interviews from 30-50 years ago... he already had MAGA in mind back then. tweets are mostly a communication channel, to the citizens... but also to the Chinese leaders. what he does is nothing surprising if you read his 'art of deal'.
No the 1930s started with UK/US Beefing... US was the biggest exporter of the world, UK was the biggest importer, UK managed little damage, US got smoked in the 30s Trade wars are really bad for countries who run surpluses, countries with deficits dictate flow of trade... I understand Winnie's play towards Trump due to ego and image he needs to keep, but if he renegs long enough, their won't be shit left, I mean their are defaults daily in China, daily... 25 % Tariffs on all exports AND China out of US Dollars with 3.5-4 Trillion in US Issued debt, wtf is Winnie thinking ? They were royally fucked before 25 %, machines aren't selling cause of effects on American Earnings... They are selling cause crushing China is horrible for global economy, they went ape shit mode in debt buying spree for commodities from EM's and luxury items from Europe Trump is retarded, but he has the Federal Reserve and the greatest economy the world has ever seen at his back. China has a real debt to real GDP ratio of 500 + % ( China real GDP is much much smaller ), Currency not floated, running deficits and besides working Foreign Reserves needed to operate, they only have treasuries left, while Economy is viciously collapsing. I posted few weeks ago or so, Bitcoin in China is hot as fuck, you pay a big vig, but they don't care... I got updates from friends who have ties to Mainland, it's panic central down there, Local governments are defaulting, companies defaulting, Banks started bail ins last Friday with US Dollars. They are borrowing 80-100 Billion US a quarter now, besides the Trillions in Swaps there Central Bank is doing. The gig is up, it has been for a while Banks will start defaulting in China second half 2019... So yea Bitcoin popularity will keep increasing in China
guy had MAGA in mind since he was in his 30's... 'retarded' not the right word... he fully understands the consequences if the Chinese leaders do the real retarded things. but like you said the US economy is firing on all cylinders and Fed can print unlimited.. and china is already in trouble... this IS the best timing to do this trade war, to firmly establish US global dominance. Winnie wants 1 belt 1 road, made in china 2025... stuff like that cannot be tolerated by MAGA... there cannot be co-number-ones.. need to shut China down before it's too late. but yes, luxury goods sales etc will take a hit... perhaps that is the price to pay to put #2 in its place.
China should remember too that they have the same trade issues with the European Union. What are the chances they copy the President Donald Trump playbook and also, play hardball with China? And if China does not sign a fair trade deal, President Donald Trump will just impose all the tariffs and wait the Chinese out while, their whole economy implodes and gets destroyed. China would lose by default if they just do nothing!