I had my big laugh for the week!!!! This is hilarious, keeps touting this trade deal agreement as if its hours away, October is the planned meeting, meanwhile this garbage talk has been going on for over a year and a half. If I were China I would call off any meetings and walk away. This is just one big laughing matter at this point. There is absolutely no deal hours away and no deal coming in october, there is your answer. Dow jumps 150 points after Trump says a China deal could come soon Trump told reporters that a U.S.-China deal could come sooner “than you think.” Both countries have been engaged in trade negotiations since last year. The back and forth between China and the U.S. has sent ripples through global financial markets as investors assess the trade war’s impact on the global economy. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/sto...elosi-launches-trump-impeachment-inquiry.html
Now Europe wants to play the tariffs hanes with us.... The European Union is looking to slap tariffs on more than $4 billion of U.S. exports in retaliation against President Donald Trump’s trade policies, according to Bloomberg News. The plan hasn’t been approved and at least one EU member is opposed to the idea, Bloomberg said, citing sources familiar with the matter. Nonetheless, the discussion came after Trump threatened to slap tariffs on as much as $7 billion worth of EU imports due to allegedly illegal EU aid for European plane maker Airbus. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/eu-is-reportedly-considering-tariffs-on-4-billion-us-exports.html
We disagree here. China has the weak hand. Food prices are rising and the government wants to stay in power. There will be a deal.
I think big picture - which bubble will crash first? US unicorn bubble or China real estate bubble. China bubble is a lot bigger, but no one can trade it, so it is just a movie to be watched. The problem is no one dares to complain - because they track every citizen and deny "bad" citizens access to trains or planes. But it seems to me that China is in more trouble right now. Of course, it is a game of chicken. Who knows, right? One thing that amazes me -- every one says it is easy for China to just sell to Thailand and then Thailand then exports to the USA. If so, why are those countries not doing well?
I feel bad for the people in Hong Kong, but I would have bet shock and awe, tanks and all -- weeks ago. But China hasn't done that yet, so I think things are not as simple for China as they seem.
It doesn’t matter. When a deal comes through then a few traders will make a few bucks, a few others will lose by not believing it. Everyone else will be waiting for some other news, whether about oil, German economy, housing, unemployment, impeachment, etc. Life goes on, traders trade almost every day. No one needs to wait for any China deal. And the more zigzags the better. Why rehashing the same topic and get excited when you won’t be the one making millions on that deal.
Mostly agree, but I would say the China deal is the biggest market moving factor that could be "coming soon". Question is, if we do get a deal, what price level would the market close at one week after the announcement? I would guess somewhere around S&P 3150 - 3250 although that's pure speculation.
Perfect opportunity for the Chinese to over-leverage and kick while Donnie's down. This deal's gonna be a stinker if Trump's desperate for a win.
This will initially be a rally on the news event but if the market grinds higher and goes into rally mode setting up for an agreement in early October I think it will become a sell on the news type of event.